UniSA research finds need for direct bus routes that avoid the Adelaide CBD

Sending most buses through Adelaide’s CBD is adding to city congestion and forcing passengers to use multiple routes, a report says. Could this be the change many people are waiting for?

Adelaide needs more bus routes that bypass the city centre to reach popular destinations directly and reduce CBD congestion, UniSA analysis of Metrocard data has found.

An algorithm developed by PhD candidate Mona Mosallanejad can predict passengers’ destinations with an incredibly high degree of accuracy, 98 per cent, even when they have transferred between buses along the way.

She says that is far more accurate than the analysis the Transport Department, which provided her with the raw data, currently does itself.

The qualified civil engineer found Adelaide’s radial bus system, where most routes run through the CBD, unnecessarily adds to peak congestion.

For example, she found there was significant demand for a direct service from the northeastern suburbs to Flinders University.

“The OD (origin-destination) analysis showed high demand from Modbury to Flinders University during the morning peak, but just one route (G40) runs between the suburbs, going through the CBD,” her research paper states.

“The results indicate that a direct route is required from Modbury to Bedford Park.”

Ms Mosallanejad told The Advertiser the best route for such a service would still use the O-Bahn, because its efficiency was the reason it was so popular, but then take a different path from Hackney Rd instead of heading into the city centre.

She said there was also demand for a direct service from the northeast suburbs to North Adelaide.

The Metrocard data used in the study was from May 2017. It included card ID, fare type, transport mode, time, date, stop and routes codes, and direction for each boarding.

A complicating factor was that Adelaide bus users swipe their cards when they board but not when disembarking.

“One of the issues with estimating the destination is that it can be difficult to distinguish whether people are transferring to another bus or mode of public transport, or whether their journey is complete,” Ms Mosallanejad said.

The accuracy of her algorithm was verified against a five-month survey of a small number of bus users.

“The survey indicates that the method used ... is 98 per cent accurate and can be used elsewhere,” the paper states. “An accurate estimation of public transport OD will be a significant help to public agencies involved in route rationalisation, which will lead to higher patronage.”