Submarines to be critical asset from increasingly aggresive China

Naval experts warn that an increasingly aggressive China will have eyes on all our surface ships – so our current and future submarines will be critical.

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“Warlike conflict” in the next five years is increasingly likely, experts say, amid concerns about Australia’s existing and future submarine fleets.

Dr Keith Joiner, from the Defence Force Academy’s Systems Capability Centre, says warships will not be safe from an “aggressive” China for much longer, so submarines will be our critical asset.

But he and his colleagues have also warned that the ageing Collins Class submarines are vulnerable to hi-tech attacks.

His warnings echo those of Rear Admiral Mark Hammond, the Deputy Chief of Navy, who told a submarine conference in Perth on Wednesday that Australia was facing a “genuine risk of great power conflict”, and needed the ability to “deploy lethal force”.

A concept image of Naval Group’s Barracuda submarines, which will be built by ASC to launch in the 2030s. Picture: AFP / DCNS

Dr Joiner said China will saturate space orbits with small satellites and use high-frequency radar to spot any ships in the region – and that it has the ability to take them out.

The risk of an Asian war in the not-too-distant future was a “realistic prospect”, he told the Submarine Institute of Australia conference, and our submarines need to be up to scratch and quickly available.

“If it moves above the surface it will be seen,” he said. “Combine that with a hypersonic missile threat, and ships will not go into that area.”

He also warned that while China was at our “front door” in the Asia-Pacific region, it was also setting up bases at our “back door”, in Antarctica.

And he said the Collins Class was vulnerable to cyber warfare.

“I don’t believe we’re on top of the situation,” he said.

His recommendation is to better equip the Collins Class for futuristic battles, and to speed up the delivery of the Attack Class.

ASC’s chief engineer Rodney Brown, who also spoke at the conference on Wednesday, outlined some of the concerns with keeping the old submarines going until the new Attack Class submarines are ready for service.

ASC’s chief engineer Rodney Brown said the Collins Class submarines, which hit the water in 1996, were built to last. Picture: Royal Australian Navy

He said the Collins Class, which hit the water in 1996, were built to last.

The Collins will have to defer their retirement, and in 2026 will start having life-of-type extensions, which is an even more thorough overhaul than the full-cycle dockings they have every 10 years.

That means putting new technology into the old hull.

Mr Brown was also asked how his team would go if the full-cycle docking sustainment was moved to Western Australia, which is an option being considered by the Federal Government.

He said the engineers were “site agnostic”.