Strategic analyst recommends diverting some of the money for submarines into drones

The most advanced submarines in the world can’t help us if they are simply overwhelmed by enemy swarms of cheap bots and drones with lasers, a strategic analyst warns.

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Defence should use some of the billions of dollars slated for the Future Submarines and spend it on drones to protect Australian boats from China, a new report from the Australian Strategic Policy Institute says.

And ASPI senior analyst Marcus Hellyer says the ageing Collins Class submarines also need fleets of undersea weapons or submariners will face “unacceptable risks” as enemy forces develop swarming bots and drones with lasers.

In Accelerating Autonomy, Mr Hellyer says we need unmanned systems because they’re cheaper, simpler, and faster to make than manned systems, and because it means we don’t have to send humans into dangerous situations.

There is too much focus on defending submarines and warships because of the humans inside, when the force needs more offensive power, he writes.

So there is a high risk if we come up against an enemy that has done the opposite; focused on cheap systems that can overwhelm the Australian fleet through sheer numbers.

A ScanEagle Remotely Piloted Aircraft is launched from a ship.

Swarming bots, smart sea mines and kamikaze drones could threaten a “legacy” ship.

Australia could take advantage of emerging technologies – for example, the US is looking at using drones with lasers, or we could use their “Orcas”, unmanned underwater vessels that can travel long distances, to even the battlefield.

“Removing the human from the platform potentially allows us to break out of the capability-cost death spiral,” he writes.

That means investing in smaller, simpler, cheaper systems that can be built more quickly.

“In fact, some can be designed essentially to be disposable,” he writes.

And they’re designed to do the “dull, dirty, dangerous and dear” work – stuff that is repetitive, takes endurance, can be dusty or harsh, deadly, and expensive.

So if China, for example, saturates the battlespace with “cheap, disposable unmanned underwater vehicles … and surface vessels with many sensors and even weapons (that) could raise the risk for traditional manned submarines to unacceptable levels”.

“Operating large numbers of unmanned underwater vessels along with manned submarines is almost certain to provide a much more effective combat force than the most elegant manned submarine alone.”

Naval Group’s concept for Australia’s Future Submarines, the Shortfin Barracuda. Picture: Naval Group

Both the Collins Class submarine program and the Future Submarine program should be seen as undersea warfare projects, not just platforms, he writes. And the Collins could be kept relevant by investing in drones that can act as sensors for it.

Some of these technologies are not technically “drones” as they can operate autonomously, without human input or with a “human in the loop”, as it’s known when one person operates multiple objects.