Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2016-17 predicts more ‘traditional’ SA fire danger season after above average winter rain
A WET winter across the state has reduced the risk of bushfire in 2016-17 as a new forecast has predicted a more “traditional” SA fire season.
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A WET winter across the state has reduced the risk of bushfire in 2016-17 as a new forecast has predicted a more “traditional” SA fire season.
The Southern Australia Seasonal Bushfire Outlook 2016-17 was released today in Brisbane and showed most parts of the state could expect a normal fire danger season.
But the Country Fire Service has warned South Australians not to be complacent this fire danger season.
According to the outlook, the Mallee and Upper South East regions, which have experienced significant rainfall deficits in recent years, could expect above normal fire potential during the next bushfire season.
“South Australia has experienced a wetter than average winter, resulting in the current Soil Dryness Index being below the 10-year average across the state,” the outlook said.
“The potential for slightly above average rain is forecast to continue through September and into October, which may lead to the fire season starting than in recent years.
“This puts the outlook in line with more traditional South Australian fire seasons.”
A Country Fire Service spokesman said the outlook offered “some optimism” for regions across SA this fire season.
“But there is no room for complacency,” he said.
“Bushfires will happen and it should be stressed there is no reason to not be as diligent and prepared for the bushfire season ahead as we would for a less favourable seasonal outlook.
“As we saw with the Pinery fire last year it only takes one bad afternoon and we can see devastating fires impact the community.
“As we enter spring it is the perfect opportunity to begin preparations around the home in order to be ready for the season ahead.
“The wetter than average winter means there is likely to be greater fuel loads and the community, particularly within the Adelaide Hills, should be mindful of clearing away vegetation within 20 metres of the home.”
In August 2015, the outlook — prepared by the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre — predicted a higher risk of bushfire in the Southeast.
The higher risk was blamed on a combination of a strengthening El Niño over the Pacific Ocean and warmer sea temperatures in the Indian Ocean.
The outlook is used by fire authorities to make strategic decisions on resource planning and prescribed fire management each fire season.