South Australia can expect above average rainfall but ‘substantial’ fire threat remains

SA can expect a very different summer to the last, with above-average rainfall – but more lightning storms. See the latest long-range charts here.

A wetter-than-normal summer will do little to dampen the bushfire risk in South Australia, where the threat of significant blazes remains “substantial”, authorities warn.

The Bureau of Meteorology and Bushfire and Natural Hazards Co-operative Research Centre on Thursday released their climate and bushfire outlooks for summer.

A normal fire season with the potential for above-average rainfall across much of the state is forecast between December and February.

However, this is reliant on the influence of La Niña – typically bringing increased rainfall and cooler daytime temperatures – which has less of an effect on SA.

The bushfire outlook states soil dryness index figures are below the five-year average although the benefits of early spring rainfall have been offset by the return of warm and dry weather.

The Australian seasonal bushfire outlook for summer shows normal fire potential for South Australia. The red areas are above-average fire potential. Picture: Bushfire and Natural Hazards CRC

“Average summer rainfall in SA is historically low so above-average rainfall, if it eventuates, may not be enough to bring substantial relief to the fire season,” the report says.

“Normal fire seasons in SA are still characterised by dozens of high-risk fire days. The fire threat is still substantial and significant fires have occurred under similar conditions.”

The bushfire outlook says an elevated risk of thunderstorm and dry lightning could increase the number of fires during the remainder of the season.

It says recent fires across the state showed a “very real risk of fire remains, particularly grass fires” with dangerous conditions observed on Eyre Peninsula and Yorke Peninsula, and in the Murraylands and Riverland.

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Chance of exceeding the median rainfall over summer. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology

Country Fire Service assistant chief officer Rob Sandford urged people to avoid complacency and be prepared despite the forecast of a wetter-than-normal summer.

“We don’t want people to see that and think there is no risk. There certainly is a risk of fire right across the state and we’ve seen that over the past couple of weeks,” Mr Sandford said.

“We will have fires right across the state and, unfortunately, potentially people in communities will be put at risk as a result of that.

“We’re not going to get enough rain, we don’t believe, if we get above average rain to change the risk profile across the state.”

Chance of exceeding the median maximum temperature over summer. Picture: Bureau of Meteorology

Bureau of Meteorology operational climate services boss Dr Andrew Watkins said the climate outlook was the opposite to what was experienced across Australia last year.

“While the last three weeks have been dry in many parts of the country – due in part to unfavourable tropical weather patterns – it does not signal a weakening of La Niña,” he said.

“There’s a great chance of grass fires in some areas as recent rain and warm weather have led to vigorous vegetation growth.

“Southeastern Australia is one of the most fire-prone regions in the world. Even short periods of hot and dry weather increase the risk of fire in summer.”

Dr Watkins said the public should be prepared for heatwaves over the next three months.

“Heatwaves may not reach the extreme temperatures of recent years but may be longer duration and more humid, which can still have a significant impact on human health,” he said.

“Daytime temperatures in summer are likely to be near average but there will be periods of high heat combined with milder periods.”