Shooters MPs will target the Murray-Darling crisis after NSW election triumph

Why did country NSW turn against its beloved Nationals in favour of the Shooters party so soon after Christchurch? Water, writes Tory Shepherd. And the aftershocks will flow to SA.

Feelings about water run deep in NSW. Those emotions bubbled to the surface when millions of fish died at Menindee over the summer, leaving a carpet of corpses.

South Australia watched on as the nation debated the role of the Murray-Darling Basin Plan in killing them off.

An independent investigation into the mass deaths found while drought was partly to blame for low water flows, too much water was being taken out of the system.

That in turn led to algal blooms that took the oxygen out of the water.

“Our review of the fish kills found there isn’t enough water in the Darling system to avoid catastrophic outcomes,” the chair of the expert panel, Australian National Professor Craig Moritz, said.

The gruesome symbol of the system’s decline came after a cascade of accusations about mismanagement, rorting, and water theft.

Newly re-elected NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian. Picture: Tracey Nearmy/Daily Telegraph

Shooters, Fishers and Farmers MP and vegetarian cattle farmer Roy Butler. Picture: Supplied

In NSW, as water levels fell, the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers Party’s vote was on the rise. People who had voted for the Nationals all their lives had the brickbats out and the swing was on. Especially along the Murray-Darling. People felt the Nationals had forgotten about them, while their farms thirsted.

The Shooters promised to fix the Murray-Darling.

The NSW election saw Premier Gladys Berejiklian returned.

Her Liberal Government will govern with a majority in the Legislative Assembly – with three Shooters MPs on the crossbench.

Counting isn’t finished yet in the upper house, but the Shooters are likely to hold the balance of power along with One Nation’s Mark Latham and the Christian Democratic Party.

In Barwon, the federal electorate encompassing Menindee, the National vote dropped by about 18 per cent, delivering the seat to the party’s Roy Butler. (That result is almost as astonishing as the fact that Mr Butler is a vegetarian cattle farmer).

The Shooters also picked up Murray, after a strong campaign from Helen Dalton. And extended their lead in Orange. Why, a week after the Christchurch shootings, were people voting for the pro-gun party?

Water.

Those three electorates are the state’s biggest farming seats, and they’ve been hit with the double whammy of drought and the Murray-Darling Basin Plan reducing the amount of water they can access. Senior Nationals MP Darren Chester blamed the drought, saying farmers hurt by the lack of rain and Murray-Darling water took it out on the party.

Pre-election polling in Barwon identified the management of water and those fish deaths as the major issues in the campaign.

Tony Windsor, the popular former independent Federal MP, weighed in today.

“All of them concerned about water,” he tweeted.

“With a one-seat majority and no control of upper house these MPs will be heard.”

The Nationals have been infighting over the leadership, rocked by the Barnaby Joyce scandal(s), and focusing on mining instead of farmers. Farmers have been unhappy with the focus on coal and on fracking.

What they cared about was water. Mr Butler said he was putting water first because voters were “cranky, white hot with anger”.

He wants to hit the pause button on the Murray-Darling Basin Plan. That, and have a federal royal commission into how the water is managed, while also enshrining more rights for irrigators and prioritising human and animal water use over the environment.

The Murray is already struggling. If even less water comes down the effect on SA could be disastrous.

Both major parties have committed to the Plan, which was billions of dollars and years in the making.

But both Victoria and NSW came close to abandoning it last year over extra water promised to SA.

And those fish deaths brought the issue into sharp focus – Niall Blair, the deputy Nationals leader and NSW Water Minister quit his portfolio as soon as he was re-elected, and pointed to water as the reason.

“I cannot deny that the level of aggression directed towards me around water policy has had a profound impact,” he said.

The Shooters party, flush from Saturday’s success, immediately said it would not negotiate with the State Government until the Murray-Darling is sorted out.

“That’s number one on the list,” Party Leader Robert Borsak said.

Ms Berejiklian had already ruled out supporting the gun-toting Shooters, whom she sees as dangerous; on the other hand, Labor did a preference deal with them.

The Berejiklian Government may always not need the Shooters to get its legislation through.

But that doesn’t mean the plan is safe.

The Shooters can move motions, introduce their own legislation, and use the forum of the Parliament to shift the conversation.

And they’ve said they’ll give the federal election a red hot go. The party will target Nationals seats in NSW at the May election, and will also field a Senator.

State Water Minister David Speirs said the government “categorically” rejects any idea of putting the plan on hold.

“It is critical for SA’s future that the plan is delivered in full and on time,” he said.

The Coorong, the Lower Lakes, the Murray Mouth and all their flora and fauna depend on that happening – but they’re a long way from NSW.