SA’s proposed new electoral boundaries make it easier for Premier Steven Marshall’s Liberal Party to lose key seats
A draft electoral redraw will put one in five SA voters in new electorates. But what does it mean for the next election – will the new boundaries make it easier for Peter Malinauskas to topple Steven Marshall?
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Labor’s bid to make Steven Marshall a one-term Premier has been given a slight boost, under a proposed plan that would see about one in five South Australian voters shift electorates.
A draft plan means a 1.9 per cent swing to Labor could see them win enough seats to form government.
However, the plan does not shift the fact that if everyone was to vote exactly as they did in the 2018 election the Liberals would still win.
The Electoral Districts Boundaries Commission on Friday morning released a draft redistribution report that outlines changes it believes should be made before the next election.
It includes a major redraw of boundaries with an estimated 240,000 voters shifting to new electorates.
Marginal Liberal-held seats in Adelaide, Newland and Elder will all become easier for the Labor Party to win – it needs to gain five seats to govern in a majority.
ELECTORAL COMMISSION’S PROPOSED CHANGES
The changes mean Adelaide MP and Child Protection Minister Rachel Sanderson falls from a margin of 1.1 to 0.7.
Carolyn Power, who had been touted as a potential minister when Mr Marshall reshuffled his Cabinet last month, is on a razor-thin margin of 0.1 in Elder – dropping from 4.5.
Richard Harvey, who won the seat of Newland at the last state election, would now be in the second most marginal seat in the state after 2.1 to 0.4.
Labor’s most marginal seat Mawson – held by Leon Bignell – would become a little harder to lose.
The draft plan includes huge changes to many districts including independent Geoff Brook’s seat of Frome.
Labor state secretary Reggie Martin expressed mixed emotions.
“Labor acknowledges that the Commission has set the number of electors closer to the quota, but we are disappointed that despite achieving 48 per cent of the statewide vote Labor only has 42 per cent of the seats on these draft boundaries,” he said.
Liberal state director Sascha Meldrum said the party would analyse the proposed boundaries and provide a written response to the Electoral Commission by next month.
“The swing-to-lose pendulum released today shows the number of notional Liberal seats remain the same, with the Liberal Party retaining 24 seats necessary to form government,” she said.
“Following the next round of consultation, the Commission is expected to gazette final boundaries in November.”
A previous “fairness” requirement that was supposed to ensure that if candidates of a particular group attracted more than 50 per cent of the popular vote, including preferences, they would be elected in sufficient numbers to enable a government to be formed – has been removed from the legislation underpinning changes.
But in determining the new boundaries the commission had to take into account a raft of issues including:
DESIRABILITY of making the electoral redistribution so as to reflect communities of interest of an economic, social, regional or other kind.
POPULATION of each proposed electoral district.
TOPOGRAPHY of areas within which new electoral boundaries will be drawn.
FEASIBILITY of communication between electors affected by the redistribution and their parliamentary representative in the House of Assembly.