SA’s Christmas 2022 weather forecast: Santa brings the sun

Showers are coming over the next few days but the heat will return to SA ahead of Santa’s arrival – see the weather bureau’s official forecast here.

The Bureau of Meteorology has Santa sweating in his boots as a revised Christmas Day forecast shows warmer conditions are on the way.

Adelaide will reach a top of 32C, an increase of 2C since Monday’s forecast, with sunny skies.

However, the lead up to the big day will see a mixed bag of weather with some rain, possible storms and plenty of cloud cover.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest forecast shows the clouds clearing on Christmas Eve just in time for the festivities.

The Bureau of Meteorology has revised the Christmas Day forecast. Picture: Lachie Millard

Senior meteorologist Mark Anolak said that despite a shower or two in the coming week, there isn’t much chance this will dampen Christmas.

“Yes we’re expecting showers midweek but this will clear up on Thursday,” Mr Anolak said.

Adelaide’s outlook for the week will see some water for the garden as families and friends prepare to gather for Christmas lunch.

The hot weather will extend into the regions with Port Augusta set to reach a top of 37C, while Renmark will get to 35C.

Further south, Mount Gambier will experience more mild conditions with cloud clearing and a top of 26C.

WHY SO MUCH RAIN?

Independent climatologist Darren Ray said South Australia’s increased rainfall over the past few years was the product of two major weather events.

The first is La Nina, which increases winds across the equator, changing ocean currents and drawing cooler deep water from below – leading to above-average rainfall during the winter and spring months.

The Bureau of Meteorology announced in October that Australia was entering its third consecutive La Nina summer, which was expected to impact Australia through to December before easing in January.

While La Nina has a greater impact on northern and eastern states, increased rainfall can also be pushed down to South Australia.

The second factor is negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD). Similar to La Nina, IOD increases westerly winds across the equator, concentrating warmer than usual water in the east and cooler than usual water in the west.

These warmer waters increase available moisture, leading to increased rainfall across South Australia.

Mr Ray said the impact of both these events was heightened by climate change, with warmer ocean temperatures across the globe meaning more moisture was being evaporated for rainfall.

“In general, temperatures are over a degree warmer than they were 50 years ago which means the atmosphere can hold more moisture,” he said. “With warmer oceans, you also get more evaporation.”

“So when there is a La Nina around, climate change makes that much more intense.”