SA heatwave blackout could have been avoided if AEMO had used Bureau of Meteorology’s weather forecast
EXCLUSIVE: The power cut to 90,000 customers during a heatwave earlier this month could have been avoided had the energy market operator used publicly available Bureau of Meteorology weather forecasts.
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THE February 8 blackouts might have been avoided if the energy market operator had used weather bureau forecasts instead of private modelling that failed to predict that the temperature would exceed 40 degrees.
The Australian Energy Market Operator admits it underestimated how hot it would be on the day of the load-shedding blackouts and therefore also underestimated how much demand there would be for electricity in South Australia.
On the morning of the blackouts, forecasts produced for AEMO estimated that the temperature in Adelaide would peak in the high 30s.
The Bureau of Meteorology had correctly predicted two days earlier that the temperature would reach 41 degrees.
Climate Council member and former energy company executive Andrew Stock said AEMO should have been able to avoid the load shedding if it had taken notice of the BoM forecasts earlier in the week.
Mr Stock said the energy operator could have used the advance notice to ensure the mothballed unit at the Pelican Point power station was available and to advise consumers to limit their energy use.
“If they’d been using the bureau data where it was saying it was going to be 40 or 41 three days in advance, they would have known that demand would be high and therefore could have taken steps to ensure that enough supply was available,’’ he said.
Just a few degrees difference in temperature can have a major impact on energy demand during periods of hot weather.
When contacted yesterday, AEMO referred The Advertiser to a report into the load shedding incident which said: “Errors in the temperature forecast led to errors in the demand forecast’’.
Federal and state energy ministers last week agreed to direct AEMO to work more closely with the BoM.
AEMO currently uses temperature forecasts from Weatherzone and Telvent, which are based partly on BoM data.
SA Energy Minister Tom Koutsantonis yesterday criticised AEMO’s use of privately-produced weather information.
“The fact that the national operator of our electricity network, which is one of the biggest and most complex machines in the world, was using the Weatherzone website for its weather forecasting and not the BoM beggars belief,’’ he said.
As debate continues over whether Australia should build new coal-fired power stations, Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will today declare that the nation can become the “energy capital of Asia” by supporting research and investments in renewable energy.
“We won’t win in our region by cutting wages or importing skills — but we can win by being smarter with energy,’’ Mr Shorten will say. “We can be the energy capital of Asia.”
International Energy Agency executive director Dr Fatih Birol, who is visiting the country, yesterday said Australia was a “very good candidate” to be a leader in carbon capture and storage.