Rise in case numbers likely depicts start of new Covid wave

Following a steady decline from July, Covid-19 case numbers are creeping their way back into the high 2000s. Should South Australians be concerned moving into the festive season?

A new Covid-19 wave could be rearing its ugly head as South Australia sees case numbers begin to rise moving into the festive season.

The latest weekly numbers from SA Health show an approximate 10 per cent increase in new cases, alongside 44 hospitalisations including 5 patients in the intensive care unit (ICU).

PCR testing has also increased over the period, but more positive results came from rapid antigen tests.

University of South Australia epidemiologist Professor Adrian Esterman believes the numbers are under-reported, but the rise could indicate the beginning of the state’s next wave.

My Esterman has developed this conclusion based on an “effective reproduction number” calculation.

“If the number is greater than one, it means the outbreak is getting worse,” he said.

“Last week it was 1.01 and this week it is 1:06 … the last time it was this high was in July.

“Though you can’t guarantee there’s another wave starting because this is only based on two weeks of data, I think there’s a very high chance that it’s going to happen.”

A new Covid-19 wave could be on the way for SA. Picture: Brenton Edwards

Mr Esterman said there are two main factors contributing to the rising figures — waning immunity and new sub variants BA 2.75 and XBB.

“Most of us had our last vaccine dose several months ago and our protection is now reduced,” he said.

“At the same time, we’ve got two new subvariants that have begun to dominate across the world.

“They might be slightly milder, but can escape immunity more easily and therefore they will get around protection from vaccination and from previous infection.”

Meanwhile, over the eastern border it is too early to determine the strength and impact of a new Omricon subvariant that caused Covid cases to soar by nearly 25 per cent in a week.

However, the worrying spike led health authorities to warn “we are at the start of another Covid-19 wave” and reiterate the need for booster vaccinations and preventive measures to stem the spread.

Covid-19 case numbers in South Australia. Picture: SA Health

It was only earlier this month, the “emergency phase” of the pandemic in SA was declared at it’s end.

Virtually all legal restrictions were removed on October 13 including mandatory isolation if people test positive and wearing masks in public if positive.

Mr Esterman thinks it was the wrong call.

“We shouldn’t have removed the isolation problems in the first place,” he said.

“We’re going to brutally regret as we see case numbers and hospitalisations go up.

“But I think the government will be dragged kicking and screaming to reintroduce them.”

Mr Esterman warned of another Covid-affected Christmas, but believes South Australians will choose to ignore the disease — despite ongoing concerns surrounding vulnerable people and long Covid.

He said vulnerable South Australians should “mask up” and others should consider the risks of transmission.

“Young people are still getting ill and dying,” he said.

“Face masks will protect you to a certain extent, but the main purpose is to stop the transmission of the disease to someone else.

“Covid is still here and it has to be taken seriously.”