Rebekha Sharkie set to win Mayo by-election, YouGov Galaxy polling shows
CENTRE Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie should easily win the seat of Mayo in this week’s Super Saturday by-election — but other results for seats could spell trouble for Bill Shorten, polling shows.
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CENTRE Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie should easily win the seat of Mayo in this week’s Super Saturday by-election, as polling shows her a comfortable 18 points clear of Liberal Georgina Downer.
An Advertiser-Galaxy poll shows Ms Downer’s bid to grab the seat held by her father, Alexander, for 24 years is all but dead as Ms Sharkie consolidates her previous popularity as the local member.
But knife-edge poll results in Longman in Queensland and Braddon in Tasmania will set the tone because Labor losses would reignite debate over Bill Shorten’s future as Opposition Leader.
The latest polls show voters are more likely to vote for the ALP with Anthony Albanese at the helm.
Coalition wins would also raise questions as to whether Prime Minster Malcolm Turnbull should call an early election and see voters go to the polls before the end of the year.
Doing so could result in a second showdown between Ms Sharkie and Ms Downer — although on newly drawn electoral boundaries.
The YouGov Galaxy poll commissioned by The Advertiser shows Ms Sharkie is set to romp home in her battle to keep the Adelaide Hills seat she was forced to vacate as part of the citizenship fiasco.
The result shows the Centre Alliance candidate safely holding off the challenge from Ms Downer and increasing her margin to an extremely comfortable 18 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
Primary vote
Two-party preferred vote
How satisfied were you with the way Rebekha Sharkie did her job as Member of Parliament for Mayo?
The poll, based on a sample of 540 voters in Mayo, shows if the by-election was held today Ms Sharkie would score 59 per cent of the two-party preferred vote, while her Liberal rival would get only 41 per cent.
But when The Advertiser asked Ms Sharkie if she was feeling confident following the release of the poll, she said “ask me again on Saturday night”.
“It is making me more nervous,” Ms Sharkie said.
“When we had some polling that came out a few weeks ago after that these really big, ugly posters came out in the electorate saying a vote for Sharkie helps Shorten.
“You kind of think what are they going to throw next?”
Ms Sharkie has grown in popularity since the last election when she ended the Liberals’ 32-year hold on the seat that began in 1984, as a Nick Xenophon Team candidate.
At the time, the former paralegal and once political research assistant for former South Australian Liberal opposition leader Isobel Redmond, defeated Liberals MP Jamie Briggs with 55 per cent of the two-party preferred vote.
Ms Sharkie said she was making the most of “every minute” before voters cast their ballot papers this Saturday.
“You just keep working, keep putting one foot in front of the other, and that is all I can do.”
Ms Downer, on the other hand has failed to increase her chances going backwards since similar polling in June where she was one point higher and Ms Sharkie one point lower.
Her poor showing comes despite being joined by a cavalcade of Liberal Party heavyweights during the campaign including Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, former Prime Minister John Howard and numerous government ministers including Julie Bishop, Greg Hunt and Mathias Cormann.
Ms Downer said the results of the poll was “certainly not the feeling I am getting on the ground”.
“(I am) getting a very, very positive response in the community and at the pre-poll and people do keep raising with me their concerns about Ms Sharkie’s voting record,” Ms Downer said.
“I am completely committed to being a strong voice for the people of Mayo in Canberra particularly as part of the Liberal party as the party in government.”
Overall, 69 per cent of voters in Mayo had a positive opinion of Ms Sharkie and only 16 per cent had formed a negative opinion of her. Primary support for Ms Sharkie is 47 per cent — ahead of Ms Downer on 35 per cent, Labor candidate Reg Coutts, (9 per cent) and the Green candidate, Major Sumner (7 per cent).
Across the country, polling shows Labor and Liberal parties are locked 50-50 for the two-party preferred vote in Braddon. In a result that will make Mr Shorten nervous, respondents indicated they were more likely to vote for Labor if his infrastructure spokesman Anthony Albanese was leader of the party.
With Mr Albanese as leader, Labor incumbent Justine Keay would regain the seat on a 54 per cent, two-party preferred vote.
In the Brisbane seat of Longman, the polling shows a surge in popularity for One Nation could lift the Liberal candidate Trevor Ruthenberg to a winning position after preference flows.
Polling shows Mr Ruthenberg leads ALP incumbent Susan Lamb 51-49 on two-party preferred vote.
Again, greater support for Mr Albanese suggests a possible loss could be turned into a comfortable win if he was leading the ALP.
Mr Shorten was campaigning in the seat on Sunday.
Mr Turnbull said by-elections historically always swing away from the government, particularly if it’s an Opposition seat.
“The last time a government won a seat in a by-election from an Opposition was about 100 years ago — there’s a reason for that,” he said.
Mr Turnbull on Sunday visited Tennant Creek in the Northern Territory, which was the first visit to the region by a prime minister since Malcolm Fraser in 1982.
On arrival he was given a welcome to country in the local Aboriginal language, to which he responded in the same language.
“We have to map the pathways to reduce harm to children and set the framework for greater economic development for the Barkly region,” Mr Turnbull said.
“I know Tennant Creek has had its challenges in recent times and I know you are facing these challenges head on with great courage, leadership and collaboration.”
In June, it was revealed the NT government had removed 15 children from their families around the town, when it was deemed unsafe after the rape of a toddler there in February.
Mr Turnbull said all levels of government needed to work “with First Australians, doing things with First Australians, rather than doing things to them”.
Analysis — Liberals’ campaign fails to dent ousted MP’s support
Matt Smith
SOMETHING would have to go terribly wrong for Rebekha Sharkie to not win back the seat of Mayo on Saturday.
It was always going to be hard for Georgina Downer to win the seat the Liberals had held from 1984 to 2016 when Ms Sharkie beat Jamie Briggs. Since then Ms Sharkie, the Nick Xenophon Team turned Centre Alliance MP, has gained a reputation as a hardworking candidate in tune with her community.
The Liberals have had to convince voters sticking with Ms Sharkie would not benefit the community the way an MP in the tent could. Voters have also had to be convinced Ms Sharkie was more likely to vote with Bill Shorten’s Labor, or the Greens, over the Liberals whose conservative values are more in tune with the electorate. Despite growing up in the region, and with a name synonymous with the electorate, Ms Downer has also had to convince the voters of Mayo that she truly knows the issues that affect them after being away for 20 years.
From today’s polling, it seems, the Liberals and Ms Downer have struggled, at least a little, on every front.
The Liberals could not be accused of ignoring the seat. Like Ms Sharkie, day after day Ms Downer has been working hard, talking to voters about their concerns.
Rarely has a day gone by when Ms Downer has not been joined by a Federal minister with a promise for the electorate. But it will take the mother of all comebacks for the seat to return to the Liberals without huge changes this week.