Postal vote applications soar in South Australia ahead of 2022 federal election

A staggering number of South Australians have already applied for a postal vote this election, which could change the race for one key seat.

A record number of people are set to cast their votes early for the May 21 federal election as postal applications soar in South Australia, leading political experts to believe it will boost the Liberals’ chances of retaining the state’s most marginal seat of Boothby.

Just three weeks into the campaign, the Australian Electoral Commission has already received 114,554 postal applications from South Australians – a massive jump from the 7335 people who had applied at the same stage in the campaign in 2019.

It is on track to swiftly surpass the total number of postal votes to be cast in the whole 2019 election, which was 128,692.

So far, 13,977 residents in the state’s most marginal electorate of Boothby have applied for a postal vote.

That’s already 921 more than the total number of people who submitted a postal vote in Boothby during the 2019 campaign.

Flinders University political scientist Haydon Manning said a new record for postal voting “will be easily set” and would likely boost the Liberals’ chances of retaining Boothby.

“The demographic of people who seek a postal vote is older, and of course for the Coalition, older voters are the stronger (supporters) among the age cohorts,” Professor Manning said.

“With around 10 per cent of Boothby voters already seeking a postal vote, and that number will rise in coming weeks, that offers some comfort to Liberal candidate Rachel Swift.”

But Professor Manning warned “the past is not always a reliable guide”, and suggested high-profile “teal” independent candidate Jo Dyer’s campaign could shake up the race between the two major parties.

Ms Dyer’s campaign wobbled during the week when it was revealed she may still hold dual British citizenship, which would have rendered her ineligible to run. But on Saturday Ms Dyer announced her British citizenship was revoked in February, and her candidacy is confirmed.

Flinders Uni political expert Haydon Manning.

A staggering 1.3m people across Australia have already applied for a postal vote, which the AEC expected was due to Covid-related reasons.

“This increased number early could be a spike that flattens out or people may choose to vote in person instead, even though they applied for a postal vote due to Covid,” a spokeswoman said.

The AEC also warned the high number of postal votes could mean the result won’t be decided on election night on May 21.

In other SA electorates, 13,951 people have applied for an early in Sturt, compared with just 1081 at the same time last election campaign.

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