Liberal insiders reject new poll showing Coalition lead in Boothby

A new poll on South Australia’s most marginal federal seat has thrown up some surprising results, but political insiders say they’re not convinced by the figures.

Liberal supporters “could only wish” to be leading the votes in Boothby as a new poll shows Labor is falling behind in South Australia’s only marginal federal seat.

The Telereach poll, which claims the Liberals have 52 per cent of the two-party preferred vote in the seat, has been widely rejected by MPs across the political divide following Steven Marshall’s crushing state election loss on Saturday.

One Liberal MP said “the reality is we have a mountain to climb and we don’t start in front”.

“While I would love to believe that poll is an accurate assessment of the state of play in Boothby, Liberal party supporters could only wish that to be the case,” the MP said on the condition of anonymity.

Dr Rachel Swift (left) is the Liberal Party’s candidate for Boothby after Nicolle Flint retires from parliament. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Mariuz

The Telereach poll showed Labor was also trailing the first preference votes with 36 per cent to the Liberals’ 38 per cent. This is despite massive swings towards Labor in the state seats of Badcoe, Elder, Davenport and Waite, which all sit within Boothby.

One confounded Labor MP told The Advertiser they would expect the party’s percentage of primary votes to “start with a 4” in Boothby, where candidate Louise Miller-Frost is up against Liberal Rachel Swift.

Coalition insiders believe Sturt MP James Stevens will be in a “white knuckle” contest to hold on to his seat following a 7.6 per cent swing away from former Premier Steven Marshall in Dunstan.

“The frontline in the federal political battle in South Australia has moved from the Marion Shopping Centre to The Parade,” one Liberal MP said.

Mr Stevens himself agreed he would be “in the fight of my life” to retain his seat.

“I don’t really see the result on Saturday being the reason for that, I just think … there are different issues at play in the federal campaign,” he said.

James Stevens expects to be in the fight of his life for Sturt. Picture: NCA Newswire/Gary Ramage

Labor sources also believe Rowan Ramsey’s outback seat of Grey is “ripe” for the taking after huge swings away from the Liberals in state seats Stuart, Giles and Flinders.

Coalition insiders agreed losing Grey was “not out of the realms of possibility”, with one Liberal MP remarking the party was “very worried” about the seat, held with a 13.3 per cent margin.

The Telereach Boothby poll, conducted as an interactive voice response poll between March 17 and March 19, contends Labor has slipped further behind since the 2019 federal election, when the party secured 48.62 per cent of the two-party-preferred vote to the Liberals’ 51.38 per cent.

But the poll suggests Labor has increased its primary vote from 34.63 per cent in 2019 to 36 per cent now.

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