Land supply forecasts reveal how many homes Adelaide’s growing population will need

Adelaide may need to find space for more than 60,000 extra homes to cope with predicted population growth for which experts warn we’re not ready.

An extra 88,800 houses would be needed in the next decade to accommodate nearly 200,000 people in Adelaide and surrounding townships new population and land forecasts have revealed.

A state government land supply report also estimates there are 168,624 blocks suitable for development in existing neighbourhoods, which could produce 273,875 extra homes.

Suburbs including Seaton, Findon, Parafield Gardens, Paralowie, Morphett Vale and Campbelltown have been identified as hot spots to accommodate future housing while the outer northern suburbs and western suburbs will be growth zones for new employment.

But the report warns that better co-ordination and planning of infrastructure to support ”sustainable urban development” is needed.

The modelling released today focuses on the Greater Adelaide region, which covers metropolitan Adelaide, Mt Barker, the Barossa, Fleurieu Peninsula and Murray Bridge, accounting for 1.4m people.

The study forecasts population growth of 139,000 and potentially 195,100 under medium and high growth projections requiring 63,600 and 88,800 new homes respectively to 2030, taking into account demolitions.

In comparison the region grew by 119,900 persons between 2010-2020 with an additional 76,700 houses built, the report says.

Two-thirds of new housing growth was in established metropolitan neighbourhoods and 19 per cent has been through greenfield projects on the city’s fringes.

The report also reveals that:

ADELAIDE’S western suburbs have provided about 25 per cent of all infill housing;

CAMPBELLTOWN recorded the most subdivisions, with 1002 houses built in the six years to 2020 generating an average 45 demolitions per annum in the suburb.

HOUSING density across greater Adelaide has increased from 10 lots per hectare in 2010 to 12.3 blocks in 2019 with some greenfield sites reaching 15 lots per hectare;

AN average 2000 homes a year – the majority built between 1950 and 1969 – are demolished across metropolitan Adelaide;

THE state’s population grew 16,600 in the 12 months to June 2020 – the fastest since 2010.

AN estimated 126,000 blocks – of which 22,400 were development ready as of June 2020 – could be supplied through greenfield development on the city’s fringes.

The report says that because of “increased demand for infill development” the style of housing was “slowly changing to accommodate the needs of modern families and households at various life-cycle stages”.

“Increased demand for infill housing and significant numbers of new dwellings being built in the inner north and the Adelaide west are also gradually increasing the density and number of inner suburbs,” the report says.

The report states that “theoretically” there is enough residential land zoned for subdivision to generate an extra 274,000 dwellings but that in the short to medium term a more “realistic target” is 68,600 blocks “spread throughout the established urban area …”

Larger masterplanned development sites and high-rise development on major roads and in the CBD could generate an additional 67,700 dwellings.

Demographic changes including an increasing ageing population, lower fertility rates and more single person households will continue to shape housing demand, the report said.

By 2030 the proportion of those aged 65 and older is expected to increase by 86,600 or 26 per cent by 2030.

“Lone person households, single-parent and couple-without-children families have all increased over the past two decades due to ageing, the increasing number of overseas students and increases in family breakdowns,” the report says.

“In contrast, the number of couple-with-children families has fallen.”

The report also warns that co-ordinated supply of infrastructure to urban is “vital to sustainable orderly urban development”.

It says that water mains in existing urban areas were not designed to “accommodate the increased demands currently being generated by urban infill”.

“The monitoring of urban infill ‘hot spots’ to ensure sufficient time to identify, plan, fund and construct required upgrades has proven difficult,” the report says.

“Current funding models need to be reviewed to improve competitiveness and procedural fairness to land owners and developers while also obtaining required funds for new and upgraded infrastructure.”

Adam Moore, 43 and Rebecca Dawson-Moore, 48 take the keys to their Rivergum Homes property at Findon in Adelaide’s western suburbs, today. Mr Moore said the couple wanted to live in the Adelaide Hills but property was “pricey”.

“A lot of the allotments in the Hills seemed not a whole lot bigger than what was being offered in the city,” he said. “We’re thrilled we’re halfway between the beach and the city and we’re surrounded by shops.”

The land supply report identified 1069 potential development blocks in Findon, the second highest number in the western suburbs, behind Seaton with 1926 blocks.

Adam Moore and Rebecca Dawson-Moore with Archie, 3, at their Findon house. Picture: Dean Martin

NORTHERN FRONT

Broadacre housing development will be concentrated in Adelaide’s expanding outer northern suburbs but the outer southern suburbsis running out of land zoned for new housing.

State Government land forecasts reveals 49,500 homes could be built in the Playford, Gawler and Two Wells areas on land currentlyzoned for future greenfield housing estates.

That is 12,700 more houses than what could be built on similar land in Adelaide’s outer southern suburbs, Adelaide Hills andMt Barker regions, the Fleurieu Peninsula, Murray Bridge and Barossa and Northern Plains combined, the study reveals.

The predictions are based in a land supply report released on Friday by the state government forecasting potential housinggrowth across the Greater Adelaide region of up to 88,800 homes in the next decade.

The study also concluded that there is sufficient land to accommodate housing and employment growth in the Greater Adelaideregion – which covers metropolitan Adelaide, Mt Barker, the Barossa, Fleurieu Peninsula and Murray Bridge – to 2036.

The population of the outer north which had grown by 20,650 people – or 1.8 per cent per annum between 2010 and 2019 – couldincrease to 175,000 by 2030 under a high growth population predictions.

The region had a projected population of 135,900 in 2020.

“Over the last decade greenfield development has accounted for 80 per cent of all dwellings built in the region,” the reportsaid. “This is assumed to continue into the next decade as additional land comes to market and major infrastructure projectsmake land more accessible and desirable to a larger portion of the market.”

The outer south, which includes the southern vales and Aldinga, Sellicks Beach, Hackham and Seaford Meadows, has the lowestgreenfield allotment supply going forward due to zoning rules protecting primary production areas from development.

As at June 2020 there were 1900 development ready allotments and potential for a further 4000 on undeveloped land.

DWELLINGS BUILT (2010-19)

Outer North – 11,300

Outer South – 9900

Adelaide Hills – 4700

Fleurieu – 4700

Murray Bridge – 1300

Northern Plains & Barossa – 2300

LAND SUPPLY (AT JUNE 2020)

Outer North – 49,500

Outer South – 5900

Adelaide Hills – 13,000

Fleurieu Peninsula – 7500

Murray Bridge – 6300

Northern Plains & Barossa – 4100