Inside story of Malcolm Turnbull’s coup to become Prime Minister and Tony Abbott’s leadership downfall

A SUNDAY afternoon meeting at the exclusive Adelaide Club was one of Tony Abbott’s final showdowns as prime minister.

Prime Minister Tony Abbott chats to the Leader of the House and Minister for Education Christopher Pyne, Kevin Andrews, Malco...

ON SUNDAY afternoon, Tony Abbott strode into the exclusive Adelaide Club, headquarters of the city’s establishment, for a showdown over his increasingly tenuous hold on the prime minister’s job.

Inside the 19th century gentlemen’s club on North Tce, Mr Abbott met with his close friend of almost 25 years, Education Minister and senior South Australian Liberal Christopher Pyne.

Intense speculation about Mr Abbott’s leadership was discussed in what sources said was a tense exchange.

Senior Liberals said Mr Abbott confronted Mr Pyne over his apparent switch to Malcolm Turnbull’s camp. This had been evident to colleagues for some time and surfaced publicly when Mr Pyne last month accused Mr Abbott of branch stacking a Coalition party room vote over gay marriage.

Mr Pyne’s power stretches beyond the South Australian Liberal Party, which the relentless political warrior and Sturt MP controls. Like Mr Turnbull, he is a leading Moderate and chief parliamentary tactician as Manager of Government Business.

Even for the influential confines of the genteel Adelaide Club, it was a high-powered discussion. But, crucially, sources said Mr Abbott left the meeting convinced he had eased his old friend’s doubts about his leadership. It is understood Mr Pyne emphasised his support for the Prime Minister.

But the next day, Mr Pyne and Mr Abbott’s deputy Julie Bishop were among senior Liberals who turned on Mr Abbott, installing Mr Turnbull as Australia’s 29th Prime Minister in a lightning and clinical coup. Ms Bishop, whose switch was decisive, went to his office just after noon to deliver the message he had lost the party’s support.

About 3.15pm, Mr Turnbull spoke to Mr Abbott in his office, after parliamentary Question Time, and notified him of a challenge. At 4pm, he publicly revealed the move, saying the Coalition was headed for an election loss under Mr Abbott. After a 9.15pm party room vote, he was Prime Minister designate.

THE FINAL DINNER

Just the day before in Adelaide, Mr Abbott was bracing for a leadership challenge. But he expected Mr Turnbull’s forces to move on him a week later, with a trigger point Mr Turnbull’s scheduled luncheon address to Canberra’s National Press Club this Tuesday.

Despite some warnings from colleagues, he was unaware of the seniority of the forces marshalling against him, or the scale of the numbers Mr Turnbull and his lieutenants had amassed.

On Sunday afternoon, Mr Abbott was stopping over in Adelaide for 18 hours, as he travelled to Canberra from Perth. He had spent the previous day campaigning in the south-eastern suburban seat of Canning ahead of a by-election today. The untimely death of Liberal MP Don Randall on July 21 from a heart attack had precipitated the poll in the once-safe seat. Mr Abbott’s deep and persistent unpopularity had put it on the precipice of falling to Labor. A Liberal loss or even a close shave was expected to spark a challenge and Mr Abbott’s leadership was, at best, shaky.

After the tempestuous Adelaide Club meeting, Mr Pyne flew to Canberra on the 7pm Qantas flight. Mr Abbott and eight of his staff went to Gaucho’s eatery on Gouger St, where they had a 7.30pm booking.

The Adelaide Club.

For what became his last supper, the then prime minister was upbeat. Co-owner of the Argentinian restaurant famed for its steak, Joe Puntureri, said he charmed staff with his gentlemanly manner. Pictures were not permitted — security was cited — but Mr Abbott’s staff took some and supplied them to Gaucho’s on Wednesday.

The next morning, his last as Prime Minister, Mr Abbott headlined an 8.30 press conference at Norwood’s Traffic Management Centre, where he and Premier Jay Weatherill announced a funding deal for the $985 million Northern Connector expressway. They were joined by Assistant Infrastructure Minister Jamie Briggs and state Transport Minister Stephen Mulllighan.

But the expressway’s green light had already been exclusively reported on The Advertiser’s front page and there was only one story dominating the national agenda — Mr Abbott’s leadership.

Facing an onslaught of questions, he deftly dismissed speculation of a leadership challenge as “Canberra gossip” and “Canberra games”, which he refused to play.

Shortly after 9am, Mr Abbott’s Boeing Business Jet left Adelaide Airport for Canberra, with the Prime Minister and his loyal lieutenant Mr Briggs aboard. Once again, the talk turned to leadership. Senior Liberals said Mr Abbott was still unaware of the looming plot and thought New South Wales Right powerbroker Scott Morrison and a crucial five to six of his allies were holding firm, cementing his hold on the top job.

COUP’S DECISIVE MOMENT

While Mr Abbott was flying to Canberra, the plot to overthrow him was in its final stages. Mr Turnbull met in Parliament House on Monday morning with Liberal Deputy Leader Julie Bishop, whose switch to his camp was the decisive moment that torpedoed Mr Abbott’s prime ministership.

Senior Liberals close to Mr Turnbull said Ms Bishop finally locked in behind him on the weekend. The pair attended Sydney Dance Company’s annual Dance Noir party on Saturday night and had other conversations on Sunday.

The final showdown had been brewing for weeks but the tipping point that pushed Ms Bishop was unrest and feverish backroom chatter sparked by an exclusive story in The Advertiser and Sydney’s Daily Telegraph on the Friday, by journalist Simon Benson.

The new Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, and his deputy Julie Bishop.

“Tony Abbott is believed to be planning to axe up to six ministers in a wholesale reshuffle of Cabinet and the outer ministry as he comes under increasing pressure to dump ‘dead wood’,” Benson wrote. This, according to one senior Liberal, “ignited a world of speculation and discussion” and “intensified things quite quickly”. “People assumed it was a botched plant from the Prime Minister’s office,” the source said.

Those ministers Benson said were at risk of the sack included Abbott backers Kevin Andrews, Eric Abetz and Mr Briggs. Those on the rise included Turnbull backers Kelly O’Dwyer, Marise Payne and Arthur Sinodinos — the long-time chief-of-staff to former prime minister John Howard.

The Turnbull forces assumed it was the latest blunder from a Prime Minister’s office infamous for tactical blunders and intimidation of Liberal MPs, particularly by his chief-of-staff Peta Credlin.

“There was a sense of excessive control and excessive meddling in too many decisions by the Prime Minister’s office,” one Liberal said.

By the end of Mr Abbott’s reign, his office had become renowned by internal detractors as “the worst of both worlds — excessive control on the one hand but insufficient policy detail and judgment on the other”.

TRIGGER POINT

Questions over Mr Abbott’s judgment reached breaking point for the Turnbull camp when he doggedly refused to abandon personal support for his captain’s pick as Speaker, Bronwyn Bishop, in the face of a travel expenses scandal. On July 15, it was revealed she chartered a $5000 helicopter to attend a Liberal fundraiser in Geelong.

Less than a week later, Mr Randall died, triggering today’s Canning by-election. Polls showed the Government trailing in the safe seat, just as it had in the 30 successive Newspolls Mr Turnbull cited on Monday when challenging Mr Abbott.

A prime minister riding high in the polls with a convincing reform agenda and confidence of his backbench might have ridden out the Choppergate scandal. But Mr Abbott had none of these cards in his deck.

“Things like that (Choppergate) became the straw that broke the camel’s back,” said one key Turnbull backer.

According to senior Liberals, it is about this time Mr Turnbull was sounded out by colleagues and the push to install him began. His backers are keen to emphasise the February 9 leadership spill, which Mr Abbott survived 61 votes to 39, was a genuine backbench revolt. Ironically, the late Don Randall was one of the two WA MPs who put the spill motion.

In fact, his supporters say, Mr Turnbull made peace with himself after losing the leadership by one vote to Mr Abbott in December, 2009.

“He was hopeful of a long and prosperous career as a Cabinet minister, just like Alexander Downer,” one key Turnbull backer said. (Mr Downer was replaced as Liberal leader by John Howard in 1995 but became his most loyal lieutenant and Australia’s longest-serving foreign minister.)

But by late July and early August, Mr Turnbull and his supporters were frustrated by the seemingly inexorable drift toward an election loss. As well as consistently trailing in the polls, Mr Abbott had disastrous personal approval ratings.

Among his key lieutenants were former Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry chief Peter Hendy, the MP for the bellwether NSW seat of Eden-Monaro. Mr Sinodinos was a prominent and influential numbers man, as was Queensland senator and former Liberal Party deputy federal director James McGrath. South Australian Senator and Assistant Education and Training Minister Simon Birmingham was a less high-profile lieutenant.

Also among key backers, who strode into the party room on Monday with Mr Turnbull, were former Howard minister Mal Brough, young gun Wyatt Roy, former Peter Costello staffer and Victorian senator Mitch Fifield and Mr Pyne’s parliamentary secretary, Victorian senator Scott Ryan.

Mr Morrison backed Mr Abbott but did not publicly endorse him before the vote and rejected Mr Abbott’s offer of the deputy leadership — a joint ticket the then prime minister believed would have saved his skin.

RUDDERLESS CAPTAIN

Back in August, the Turnbull camp bemoaned the lack of a convincing narrative on economic reform. The May Budget handed the nation’s two million small businesses a $5.5 billion windfall, centred on generous tax cuts, and sustained a temporary opinion poll boost. But internal detractors argued it did not give the Government a sense of long-term purpose to weave a narrative to the electorate.

Mrs Bishop quit as Speaker on August 2 but it was too late for Mr Abbott. Nine days later, he confirmed there would be no conscience vote on same-sex marriage after a six-hour joint party room debate.

This angered many Liberals, even those who did not necessarily support gay marriage. Mr Pyne gave voice to their concerns about a vote not taking place in the Liberal Party room but the result being engineered by having the discussion with Coalition partners, the Nationals.

Liberal sources said Mr Pyne had been wavering for some time but this, for him, was the last straw.

Mr Pyne yesterday broke a public silence about his role in the coup, confirming Mr Abbott had his support on Sunday but he later switched to Mr Turnbull.

“The truth is on Sunday there was no leadership ballot, on Monday there was, then I made an assessment,” Mr Pyne said. But some Liberals say he was crunching numbers for Mr Turnbull, others say he did not but that his demeanour was obvious and influence so great that this carried numbers.

Another influential moment for the South Australian Liberals was Mr Abbott’s August 4 announcement of a $89 billion continuous shipbuilding plan, “centred” on Adelaide. This included a $20 billion frigate project, to be built at Osborne’s naval shipyard.

The scale of the announcement was intended to blow away deep angst about Mr Abbott’s rumoured captain’s pick to hand the $50 billion submarine construction project to Japan, despite a Liberal promise before the 2013 election that 12 submarines would be built in Adelaide.

Ahead of the February leadership spill, South Australian Senator Sean Edwards wrung a vague concession from Mr Abbott in return for his vote, which resulted in the present competitive evaluation process for the future submarine project between Japan, Germany and France.

But the depth of hostility toward Mr Abbott was evident at the August 4 press conference to announce the shipbuilding plan, when he was peppered by questions about whether it was pork-barrelling designed to defuse Senator Nick Xenophon’s threat to stand candidates in Liberal seats if the subs were not built in Adelaide.

Some Abbott supporters and staff privately suggested, at the time and now, that an Adelaide build would happen.

One option put to The Advertiser this week was that Mr Abbott would have announced, after bids were lodged by the end of the year, that the Germans and Japanese would be asked to prepare separate designs, conditional upon an Adelaide build.

But the shipbuilding announcement appeared hastily cobbled together as a political exercise. Mr Abbott and his staff were unable to answer questions about how many jobs would be created in SA.

This alarmed SA Liberals, who now privately put the internal case that even if Mr Abbott had announced an Adelaide build before an election next year, he would not have been believed by a public angered by sustained mixed and bungled messages about submarines.

“It would have been $50 billion down the drain in a political sense,” one senior Liberal said.

Mr Abbott was clearly worried about the South Australian division’s influence, the electoral peril it found itself in and the threat to his leadership. He spent more than five days in SA in a little over a month — unusual for a man who never quite seemed to fully understand the state or the issues driving it.

Mr Abbott has been deposed but many of the issues he confronted in South Australia and beyond remain.

Mr Turnbull is more popular but he and his new defence minister — speculated to be Mr Pyne — face the challenge of keeping the promise to build submarines in Adelaide without overturning the competitive evaluation process and raising sovereign risk issues.

The new Coalition agreement handing the water portfolio to Agriculture and the Nationals opens another front, the political powder keg of the River Murray.

Mr Turnbull, a former water minister, will be praying for rain in the Murray catchment next winter to avoid pre-election alarm about the river emerging.

The leader has changed.

The popular Malcolm Turnbull has replaced the deeply unpopular Tony Abbott. Now Mr Turnbull faces the challenge of delivering upon the promise — some say destiny — that made him Prime Minister.