Galaxy poll shows Nick Xenophon Team would take 24 per cent of primary vote at election

INDEPENDENT Senator Nick Xenophon threatens to throw the next state election into chaos, as an exclusive poll shows his self-styled party emerging as a genuine third force in South Australian politics.

Senator Nick Xenophon at Senate doors parliament House in Canberra.

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INDEPENDENT Senator Nick Xenophon threatens to throw the next state election into chaos, as an exclusive poll shows his self-styled party emerging as a genuine third force in South Australian politics.

The Advertiser-Galaxypoll of 860 respondents, taken across the state, shows the Liberals leading Labor 51-49 on a two-party basis, but widespread dissatisfaction with both the major parties.

The poll coincides with today’s return of State Parliament today, and almost halftime in SA’s electoral cycle.

On primary votes, the Nick Xenophon team would score 24 per cent at an election held today.

That has him nipping at the heels of Labor on 28 per cent, and the Liberals on 33 per cent.

If such a result were repeated at the ballot box, the entire state election would be turned on its head, and a number of powerful Xenophon independents could be elected to State Parliament.

Satisfaction with both Premier Jay Weatherill and Opposition Leader Steven Marshall is sliding markedly, as the state cements its position at the bottom of the nation’s employment ladder.

The Nick Xenophon Galaxy poll outcome

Senator Xenophon has gathered a team of candidates for a charge at this year’s federal election, and has previously succeeded in having Upper House candidates elected into State Parliament.

Senator Xenophon has told The Advertiser he will definitely field an Upper House ticket at the next state election in 2018, and consider putting candidates forward in the Lower House.

At the last state election in 2014, just two independents were elected but they became critical to deciding the formation of government.

The Nick Xenophon Galaxy poll outcome

The state held its breath for a week before Port Pirie-based MP Geoff Brock accepted a Cabinet seat from Mr Weatherill, and handed power to Labor.

Yesterday, Senator Xenophon said a Lower House state campaign in 2018 was a live option.

“Voters want a choice from the political centre,” he said.

“At the moment, we’re focused on the federal election. “I’m taking a cautious approach, and let’s see how we go.”

Federal polls show the Nick Xenophon Team ahead of Labor in SA, with 22.5 per cent of primary votes compared to 21.5 per cent, but trailing the Coalition on 31.5 per cent.

The Nick Xenophon Galaxy poll outcome

The Advertiser-Galaxy poll of state voting intentions shows Senator Xenophon drawing support from both major parties, as well as other minors including the Greens and Family First.

Labor’s primary vote has fallen by 7.8 per cent since the 2014 state election, to 28 per cent.

The Liberal primary vote has slipped 11.8 per cent over the same period, to 33 per cent.

The headline two-party number is based on typical election preference flows and shows the Liberal Party going backwards by two per cent. Such a result applied uniformly across the state would result in Labor gaining one seat, and put at least two more Liberal seats in doubt.

The Nick Xenophon Galaxy poll outcome

However, a three-way-split at the ballot box in line with today’s poll would cast doubt over the results in just about every seat and make preferences critical to deciding the ultimate winners.

The decline in support for the major parties is mirrored by disappointment with their leaders.

Mr Weatherill remains preferred premier with the backing of 37 per cent of people, a slight improvement since the 2014 election.

However, the number saying Mr Weatherill is doing a poor job has leapt from 26 per cent in 2014 to 37 per cent today.

A huge 36 per cent of voters said they did not know which major party leaders would make the best premier.

Confidence in Mr Marshall has declined and only 27 per cent of voters now believe he would make the best premier. That is down from 39 per cent in 2014.

Worryingly for Mr Marshall, only 57 per cent of Liberal voters now believe he would make the best premier.

That compares to a large 74 per cent of Labor voters backing Mr Weatherill.

University of Adelaide politics lecturer Clem Macintyre said the major parties faced a significant preference dilemma if Senator Xenophon’s poll support were replicated at the ballot box.

With a three-way primary split, the major parties could preference each other and eliminate the Xenophon threat or back his team to get independents elected over their traditional rival.

“We may get a whole lot of contests where it is going to absolutely depend on the flow of preferences,” Professor Macintyre said.

“There is clearly no let-up in the phenomenon that is Nick Xenophon. “Both parties have cause to worry about the support they’re losing to him.”

The poll was taken from Wednesday to Friday last week. The margin for error is 3.3 per cent.

What the poll means for ...

THE LIBERALS

AFTER losing yet another election in 2014, the Liberals have again gone backwards.

While they lead on a two-party preferred basis, 51-49 is a losing position for SA conservatives because Labor’s overwhelming city dominance gives it a firm grip in key marginal seats.

There is also now a new opposition in town — Senator Nick Xenophon. Despite all the Labor-fuelled gossip about Opposition Leader Steven Marshall’s position, the smart money is on for him to remain at the helm until the next election.

But this poll gives his critics fresh ammunition. Mr Marshall is beaten by undecided in the best premier stakes, and only 57 per cent of Liberal respondents back him to run the state.

LABOR

LABOR’S move four years ago to dump Mike Rann was validated by an election win, and it’s still clear that Premier Jay Weatherill is the most popular thing about the State Government.

The rise of Senator Xenophon as a party in his own right has smashed Labor’s already tepid primary vote, shrinking it to an extremely modest 28 per cent.

That’s little more than a quarter of voters who want the government we have now. However, Mr Weatherill is in front of Opposition Leader Steven Marshall as preferred premier and more than half of voters think he is doing either a good or fair job.

MINOR PARTIES

MARKET share is shrinking for the protest parties. Both the Greens and Family First are losing votes to the spectre of the Nick Xenophon Team.

However, they play a different game to the majors. They’re less focused on getting as many votes as possible, more on meeting a target of about 8 per cent to score an Upper House seat.

The Xenophon Team is making this more difficult, but there’s likely enough spots to go around.

NICK XENOPHON TEAM

NICK Xenophon hasn’t even started asking South Australians for their vote in a state election campaign, and already 24 per cent of respondents are willing to jump in behind him.

Senator Xenophon has flirted with the idea before, but stuck to an Upper House ticket in 2014. Should he get into the 2018 state race, a few significant things will have changed.

The public will have seen how those who have attached themselves to the Xenophon Team performed at the federal election. Any gaffes could damage both them, and his personal brand. On the other hand, some will have built strong profiles on which they could launch a push for the State Parliament. Senator Xenophon’s campaign infrastructure will be strongly established. If he does leap into the pool, the ripple effect could be immense.