Future Subs: What could Plan B look like?

Missiles, robot subs or a bomber fleet could be part of a backup plan if the $89 billion Future Submarines project is derailed.

Missiles, robot submarines or a bomber fleet could be part of a backup plan for the $89 billion Future Submarines if a stopgap is required.

Defence analyst Marcus Hellyer says a “constellation of measures” would be needed rather than a new interim submarine.

The Australian Strategic Policy Institute analyst, who previously worked for the Defence Department, named robot subs like Boeing’s ORCA as one of a few capabilities that could jointly form a Plan B to have a similar “effect” as the Future Subs.

“You could use it for surveillance or maybe even use it to lay smart mines in an adversary port or at a key choke point, but it’s a long way from being able to hunt other submarines or sink them with torpedos,” he said.

An Orca extra-large unmanned undersea vehicle (XLUUV), in a Boeing graphic image.

Defence could also buy more Offshore Patrol Vessels and upgrade them with anti-ship missiles, buy B-21 stealth bombers or add long-range missiles to Australia’s combat aircraft fleet to be able to strike adversary ships far away, he said.

“There’s no easy solutions,” Mr Hellyer said.

Defence Secretary Greg Moriarty confirmed on Wednesday the department was doing “prudent contingency planning” for the troubled Future Submarines project.

He did not reveal details, although the department rejected reports it was looking at German-made subs.

Collins Class submarines in formation while transiting through Cockburn Sound, Western Australia, in February 2019. Picture: Royal Australian Navy

Mr Hellyer said a new interim sub was unlikely to be the backup plan as it would take almost as long to build as French company Naval Group’s Attack-class design.

The same combat system would need to be in any interim option, and that would take “several years of work”.

“I can’t see construction starting for several years, and then it’s probably going to be five to six years to deliver a boat and then another year to two for trials to make sure everything works,” he said.

The Federal Government may approach Swedish defence firm Saab, which designed the Collins-class subs, if it was “trying to put pressure on the French,” Mr Hellyer said. Scott Morrison will discuss the Future Subs with French president Emmanuel Macron in Paris after the G7 next week.