Flinders University space experts release report on risks posed by Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellites

Sixteen thousand pieces of space junk are being tracked – and it’s only going to worse as more satellites are launched into space, warn Adelaide space experts.

Space debris is going to get a whole lot worse as thousands of new satellites are launched, a research paper has warned.

Flinders University space experts have called for international laws and treaties to be updated to keep pace with the rapidly growing Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite industry.

Space Industry Association deputy chairman Professor Melissa de Zwart and space law research associate Joel Lisk have found the number of satellites increased by 77 per cent in five years to 2019. By the end of 2020, it had increased by another 37 per cent to 3371 satellites orbiting Earth.

Mr Lisk said US billionaire Elon Musk’s SpaceX company already had approval to launch another 12,000 satellites, with a further 30,000 planned.

Other global companies such as Boeing were moving to start launching satellites in what Mr Lisk described as “a gold rush”.

Thousands of satellites are orbiting Earth, including the NASA Coupled Ion Neutral Dynamic Investigation (CINDI) mission satellite. Picture: NASA

“While there are laws that cover space activities, they are already under stress because of the speed at which the commercial space industry is developing,” he said.

In their paper, Prof Zwart and Mr Lisk said there was “real cause for concern” about the escalation of space junk.

“As the volumes of traffic in space increase, there is an increased risk of collision of objects, both active and inactive, in orbit,” they said.

“The issue of ‘space traffic management’ or ‘space situational awareness’ concepts that broadly describe co-ordination between different space users is becoming increasingly important in a domain that is becoming congested.”

The paper said that, irrespective of orbit, the “forces of gravity and drag impact how satellites orbit Earth”.

“Objects in orbit will remain in orbit for an extremely long time if caution is not used when selecting an orbit,” it said.

“If a satellite fails on orbit, it is nearly impossible to recover that satellite and it must naturally deorbit (burn up in space).

A police officer with the piece of space junk found in paddocks near Dalgety on the banks of the Snowy River in NSW. Pictures: Monaro Police District/Facebook

The space junk foundon the banks of the Snowy River in NSW. Pictures: Monaro Police District/Facebook

“While decaying, a satellite may cross other satellites in orbit, leading to potential collisions between satellites.

“Collision events have the potential to create thousands of new pieces of uncontrolled debris in orbit.”

The paper said existing Australian regulation imposed “no explicit requirement to avoid or reduce the possibility of collision”.

“While debris has always been an issue for the uses of orbit, there are no binding or express international laws applicable to debris,” it said.

Collisions between satellites have the potential to create thousands of pieces of space debris. Image: space.com

The international Outer Space Treaty dealt with the principle of “due regard” when it came to “free access to and use of outer space with mutual co-operation”.

“Whilst the principle of ‘due regard’ lacks any clear legally recognised or quantifiable scope, it does provide context for the recognition of the need to avoid deliberate collisions and the scope for international co-operation and notification of potential harm,” said the paper.

The US Air Force already was tracking 16,000 pieces of space debris while in February a geomagnetic storm forced the atmospherical destruction of 40 satellites during their launch.

Last month, a piece of a SpaceX satellite was found by a Snowy Mountains farmer in one of his paddocks.

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