Farmers double down on criticisms of the BOM’s forecasts – but the agency says it’s accuracy is ranked ‘top five in the world’

Farmers have doubled down on their criticism of the Bureau of Meteorology’s weather predictions, but the agency says its accuracy is ranked ‘top five in the world’. Read the full statement here.

A high-profile farmer is standing firm in his criticism of the Bureau of Meteorology saying it is becoming less reliable in predicting rain, not better.

Ian Hastings, a fourth-generation Mallee farmer, has been a fierce advocate for farmers nationally for many decades, including as chairman of the tri-state Mallee Sustainable Farming group and past grains group president of the Victorian Farmers Federation.

“If anything has changed over the past decade, it has got worse, rather than better, in relation to rainfall … the five-day accuracy reputation is so bad, we no longer make decisions based on those,” Mr Hastings, who has previously sat on a panel advising BOM, said.

“Something is clearly wrong in the way they are developing their forecasts … we’ve just had 40 to 65mm here in the past week when 20 to 40mm was forecast – the previous time we had a similar forecast, we got 5mm.

“So, yes, this time they got it right but the previous they didn’t … so you really just cannot rely on a forecast like that … as far as (farming) business decisions are concerned.”

Ian Hastings is standing firm in his criticism of the Bureau of Meteorology saying it is becoming less reliable in predicting rain, not better. Picture: Supplied.

The Ouyen-based farmer is among a growing group of disgruntled primary producers who believe “horrifically inaccurate” rainfall predictions risk crippling their businesses.

“It is incredibly frustrating as you think you’ve the tools you need on your phone in the paddock to help you make good decisions, but those tools are not turned in a way that allows us to make those decisions,” Mr Hastings said.

Industry insiders say widely publicised El Nino predictions, linked to hotter and drier conditions, sparked a sell-off of livestock with farmers fearful of trying to keep their animals fed, watered and in good condition under that scenario.

The market was flooded and prices plummeted, they say.

South Australian beef producer Tim Burvill, who farms at Callendale in the South-East, said cattle prices dropped by 70 per cent late in 2023.

“ … and the majority of that was because of the negativity that was being put into the industry by the BOM who were continually forecasting dry, dry, dry,” he said.

Tim Burvill has slammed the Bureau of Meteorology, declaring it “couldn’t forecast a sunrise”. Photo: Kate Bowman

But the under fire Bureau says it can’t be blamed.

“There is no evidence that the Bureau’s El Nino declaration, issued in September 2023, or any other climate outlook issued by the Bureau, significantly affected cattle, or any other livestock prices, in Australia,” a spokesperson said.

In a statement released late Friday it defended its forecast accuracy, stating it is consistently ranked “top five in the world” – and leading the globe in at least one area.

“The Bureau’s Australian weather model (ACCESS) ranks in the top four alongside the European Union, United Kingdom and United States,” a spokesperson said.

“On a seasonal timescale, the Bureau’s system is recognised as one of the best in the world.”

While not providing statistics on accuracy, or how it has changed in the past five to 10 years, BOM said “weather forecasts carry an inherent uncertainty that, on some occasions, results in forecasts deviating from the actual weather”.

“Long range forecasts do not predict sudden severe weather events … sudden severe weather events are forecast through our short-term forecasts and communicated through warnings on our website and through the BOM Weather app,” the spokesperson said.

“The Bureau’s expert scientists draw upon the latest science to produce its forecasts and warnings.”