Economists forecast coronavirus outlook for South Australia
The coronavirus outbreak’s fallout could drag on for months but economists are hopeful of only a ‘short-term’ hit to South Australia’s economy.
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The fallout from the coronavirus on Australia could drag on six months or more for universities but economists are hopeful of only a “short-term” hit to SA’s economy.
Whyalla’s steel industry, farmers and producers, and mining-related industries are likely to avoid major impacts, according to economists who have outlined predictions for SA. It comes as Australia’s coronavirus travel ban for mainland China is extended for another week from today.
The University of Adelaide’s SA Centre for Economic Studies executive director Michael O’Neil said the ban’s effect on university student enrolments could “drag into the second part of the year, so that newly commencing and current students will be six months behind”.
The higher education sector has been trying to minimise the impact, with all three SA universities offering online study options for students who were not in Australia when the ban took effect on February 1.
Flinders University deputy Vice-Chancellor Clare Pollock said the uni had pushed back the semester one start date for affected students until March 31, and extra classes would be scheduled. “In some courses, we are able to offer students an intensive study period starting in late April in which they can complete all of their semester one study before the start of semester two,” she said.
Tourism and education will be impacted the most, but Associate Professor O’Neil said “uncertainty” about the virus would also be a big factor in decision making about investment, employment, and trade.
It would hit the federal Budget bottom line, and the forecast return to surplus was now unlikely, he said. “The South Australian Government target of 3 per cent growth rate is likely to be halved,” he said.
University of NSW economist Tim Harcourt, aka The Airport Economist, said: “The main thing is not to panic.
“I don’t think major agriculture, mining and mining-related exports to China are going to slow down because of coronavirus just yet.
“It will be all right for Whyalla, for mining-related exports from SA to China and most of agriculture, except seafood.”
Universities would experience “short-term” consequences. “Students don’t make a decision to come to Adelaide for two weeks, they’re making a decision to come for four years or more, so they’re likely to hang in there for the long-term,” he said.
SA Treasurer Rob Lucas, said: “We’re gearing up for a potentially significant impact on the Budget and the economy.”
He said “no one really knows” the impact, but if national consumption dropped, the GST pool would be reduced, and SA’s $6.6 billion slice would likely fall. Mr Lucas said the coronavirus’s effect might continue for months or potentially even a year or two.
The fallout from coronavirus will be discussed when treasurers from each state and territory meet in Melbourne on Friday.
Federal Attorney-General Christian Porter yesterday issued a plea for baggage handlers and airport ground crew not to hold a 24-hour strike against Jetstar next week, as the tourism industry reels from the double blow of bushfires and coronavirus.
Australian Chamber of Commerce and Industry spokesman John Hart has urged the Federal Government to partially lift its travel ban on China, so people in less affected provinces could come to Australia. The ban had dealt a “savage blow” to tourism.