Covid, work from home, and booming Millennial population will change how we live: Bernard Salt

The Covid pandemic – and a “tectonic” demographic shift – will turn the concept of the 20-minute city on its head, says a leading population expert.

More people working from home and a burgeoning population of Millennials wanting more living space due to Covid will redefine the notion of a 20-minute city, says a prominent Australian demographer.

Bernard Salt says “now is the time” for city planners to push Adelaide towards the “holy grail” of a new 20-minute city, where residents work, live and play within their own neighbourhoods, rather than travel daily into the CBD to work.

In a report for Master Builders SA, Mr Salt said Millennials – people born between the early 1980s and 2000 – appeared to be “forsaking their inner city chic minimalist apartments” in a post-pandemic environment for a house on a separate block of land in the outer suburbs or beyond.

“The thing that drives Australia is the pursuit of lifestyle, and the question is, does working from home, in Noarlunga or Elizabeth, does it deliver you a better quality of life then driving into the city and back home again?” the executive director of the Demographics Group told The Advertiser.

“Middle Australia is saying ‘yes it does’ and grabbing it with both hands.”

The ABS forecasts that in the next five years the number of people aged 38 to 45 in SA will increase by 15,040 – among the fastest growing age groups in SA – in what Mr Salt said was as a “tectonic” demographic shift.

“I think people are using low interest rates in their late 30s to mid-40s to get the safety, security and serenity of their own home in suburbia or just beyond the edge of suburbia,” he said, arguing that more land in the city’s fringes will need to be released to meet future demand.

Demographer Bernard Salt predicts about 11 per cent of South Australia’s workforce will continue to do so from home in a new post-pandemic era.

He said these Millennials were in double-income families with kids and were reassessing their housing choice because they don’t have to travel into the city as often for work. Government housing stimulus packages had also helped drive the inner city exodus, he said.

According to the 2016 Census, 4.2 per cent – or 32,678 – of SA’s 746,105 workers reported they worked from home.

Mr Salt predicted that could more than double to about 11 per cent choosing to work from home at least two days a week.

“The household of the future may well have two adults working from home as well as kids which means the apartment and even some townhouse developments may not suit this expanding component of the market,” he said in the Master Builders SA report, which was submitted to a State Planning Commission’s review into land supply.

“Under this scenario the demand for infill apartment and townhouse development knitted into the urban fabric of Adelaide will be reduced in the post-Covid era because more households will require more space on the edge, or beyond the edge, of major cities.”

South Australia has followed national trends in the number of people reporting they worked from home, but Bernard Salt reckons the number of those working from home has more than doubled since 2016. Source: ABS Census data

He told The Advertiser that the CBD would still be the “dominant workplace” but a new “Adelaide version” of the 20-minute city would be providing services closer to where people live re-energising the suburbs.

“A a 20-minute city means having access to all services locally as in regional suburban hub like Elizabeth, Tea Tree Plaza or Marion, et cetera,” he said. “It’s the idea that jobs are decentralised to hubs and Adelaideans orientate to hubs as opposed to the CBD.

“The outcome is reduced overall commuting which improve mental health, reduces carbon emissions and builds stronger communities.”

The State Planning Commission will next year begin a review of the 30-year Plan for Greater Adelaide, a blueprint developed by the former Labor government in 2011 aimed at constraining urban sprawl and consolidating housing in existing suburbs.

The number of working people aged in their late 30s and mid-40s, making up a cohort of the so-called Millennial generation, are predicted to increase significantly in the next five years. Bernard Salt says this demographic is driving a shift in housing preference towards the outer suburbs. Data: Change in population by single year of age 2021-2026, South Australia. ABS Census

The revision will come at a critical time, coinciding with the release of the 2021 Census results in November, which Mr Salt predicts will confirm a shift away from inner-city living.

Master Builders SA chief executive Will Frogley said since Covid-19 South Australians have prioritised space.

“Market preference for room to move and working from home are not short-term fads, they are firmly entrenched,” he said.

“The landscape has fundamentally changed and this must be recognised by planning professionals and developers.”

The Advertiser revealed in May that Adelaide was facing a land supply shortage as returning expats, economic stimulus and the state’s handling of coronavirus fuelled demand in new housing estates, which were selling 18 per cent more stock than they were producing.

David and Siobhan Savill, with their children Evelyn, 6 and Mason, 7, are moving from their Andrews Farm house to a bigger property in Roseworthy. Picture Dean Martin

GROWING PAINS

With two young children, two dogs and two cats, David and Siobhan Savill have outgrown their Andrews Farm house and are heading 15 minutes further north for more space.

The couple are swapping a four-bedroom, one-bathroom house with one living space on a 325sqm block for a new house with an extra living space, two bathrooms and double garage on a 660sqm block in the new Roseworthy Garden Estate.

Ms Savill, 32, who operates a hair salon from her home, said the change was about “making sure the kids have plenty of space” as they got older.

“We’ve basically designed it (new house) so the kids don’t have to move out of home,” she said. “

The Savill family, David, Siobhan and their children Mason, 7, and Evelyn, 6, are outgrowing their Andrews Farm property and will build a new house at Roseworthy so the kids have more space. Picture: Dean Martin

Andrew Farm was great, really nice and quiet when we first moved here, but there’s a lot of development going on; it’s crammed and busy.”

Mr Savill, 35, works in logistics for the Mercorella Group at Burton said working close to home was great for his mental health.

“I’m able to get home and back during my lunch break and spend some time with Siobhan, which is great,” he said. “And being so close to home I spend less time on the road.”

[e-mail]