Australia’s future submarines and warships could take too long to be ready, analysts warn

AUSTRALIA’S submarines and warships could take too long to hit the water as China and the United States become more unpredictable, defence analysts say.

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AUSTRALIA’S submarines and warships could take too long to hit the water as China and the United States become more unpredictable, defence analysts say.

The Australian Institute for Strategic Policy warns that the nation is tying up all its money in major projects that will not be useful for at least a decade.

ASPI defence economics senior analyst Marcus Hellyer has studied the recent Budget and outlined his findings in The Cost of Defence.

Mr Hellyer writes that the “strategic situation is worsening”, and the Defence Force “will be confronted by an increasingly broad spectrum of threats”. Meanwhile, it will be a “very long time” before the Future Frigates and the Future Submarines hit the water.

The frigates will be delivered from 2028 and the submarines from 2032.

He points to China’s belligerence and the United States’ shifting priorities as well as the evolving nature of cyber threats, space capabilities and terror attacks as reasons why Australia needs to have a constant defence capability.

“The existing rules-based global order is under threat,” Mr Hellyer writes.

“China simply ignores it when it chooses ... the current leadership of the US appears unable to decide whether it wants to support the existing order, ignore it or tear it down.”

His analysis also focuses on the affordability of the mammoth $89 billion naval shipbuilding plan, saying the ongoing costs could end up being $4 billion a year.

“There’s no getting around the fact that building modern warships is expensive,” he writes.

“The Future Submarine and Future Frigates could spend $20 billion between them before Navy gets new capability.

French President Emmanuel Macron, Australian Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull and other ministers on the deck of HMAS Waller. Picture: AFP / Brendan Esposito

“That’s a lot of cash to have tied up while our strategic circumstances deteriorate and our current platforms age.”

Another concern is that, with so much money tied up in “megaprojects”, there won’t be enough for other capabilities such as facilities and information and communication technologies.

“Historically, it’s the enablers ... holding everything together that suffer,” Mr Hellyer writes.

The Federal Government has committed to increasing Defence spending to 2 per cent of GDP by 2020-21 and is on track to meet that target, ­largely because of the spending on naval warships and sub­marines.