AUKUS pact unlikely to lead to new China trade woes: Experts

Beijing’s fierce reaction to the AUKUS submarine deal is all bluster, experts say, as they made their predictions on the nation’s trade moves.

Beijing won’t slap further trade restrictions on Australian goods, such as SA wine, despite its anger over the AUKUS security pact, foreign policy experts say.

At the very worst, the experts say, China may delay easing punishing tariffs until more time has passed after Tuesday’s “optimal pathway” announcement to protect its image.

Trade Minister Don Farrell confirmed he still planned to meet with his Chinese counterpart Wang Wentao, suggesting Australia is confident its plans to acquire nuclear-powered submarines won’t derail trade talks.

“It is in both countries’ interest for trade impediments to be removed,” Senator Farrell told The Advertiser.

“The trade impediments didn’t happen overnight, and they won’t be resolved overnight.

“Australian businesses have done an outstanding job of diversifying their markets, and it is always going to be in their interests and the national interests that they continue to prioritise (diversification).”

Senator Farrell said he looked forward to visiting Beijing “in the near future”.

Trade Minister Don Farrell said he was looking forward to visiting Beijing to meet his Chinese counterpart. Picture: Lukas Coch

China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesman, Wang Wenbin, claimed Australia, Britain and the US had “totally disregarded the concerns of the international community and gone further down the wrong and dangerous path” following the optimal pathway announcement.

Australian National University research fellow Benjamin Herscovitch said it was “entirely possible that all of the fanfare associated with this announcement would prompt Beijing to slow the easing of the trade restrictions”.

“Not necessarily because China wants to punish Austrlalia further for these details of AUKUS coming out now, but rather because … it might look like too much of a concession to further ease trade restrictions in the midst of Australia making a significant announcement about nuclear-powered submarines,” Professor Herscovitch said.

Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin. Picture: Noel Celis / AFP

According to reports this week, China has lifted its Australian coal ban that was in place since 2020, suggesting Beijing won’t let the submarine deal harm relations further.

“Beijing has had a year-and-a-half of lead time to prepare for the AUKUS announcement, it fully knew it was in the pipeline, so it’s fair to infer that China was willing to lift trade restrictions and re-engage not withstanding AUKUS,” Professor Herscovitch said.

Australia China Business Council President David Olsson said it should not be assumed that the “positive steps” to repairing relations in recent months would continue at the same pace, but the behind-the-scenes diplomacy would yield results.

“If you read the statements of leaders carefully, both sides are moving ahead with an awareness and acceptance of differences, and a commitment to focus on their shared interests,” Mr Olsson said.

University of Sydney Professor James Curran said it would take time easing restrictions on wine and barley due to China bogging down Australia’s dispute case with the World Trade Organisation.

Opposition foreign affairs spokesman Simon Birmingham said: “After many meetings between Chinese leaders and the Albanese Government, many are wondering when the talk will deliver action and when our barley growers and winemakers can expect to see unjustified Chinese tariffs removed”.

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