Analysis behind Adelaide city high school rezoning revealed

The State Government has released summaries of the Education Department’s capacity analysis to explain the controversial city high school rezoning. SEE THE STATE GOVERNMENT ANALYSIS

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The fixed capacity of Adelaide Botanic High and more “professional families” in the eastern suburbs choosing public schools are among reasons for the controversial city high school rezoning, Government modelling shows.

Following multiple requests from The Advertiser, the State Government has released summaries of the Education Department’s capacity analysis that included independent reviews by Deloitte and the Office for Data Analytics.

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Inner western suburbs parents were enraged last week by the announcement they would be cut from the shared zone for Adelaide High and Adelaide Botanic High.

The Opposition has argued the Government failed to plan for its move of Year 7 into high schools in 2022, and delivered all the pain of the rezoning in Labor seats, while the Government says Labor failed to prepare for a looming demographic crunch.

The modelling shows that without the rezoning and excluding the introduction of Year 7s, Adelaide High would be 161 students over its current 1450-student capacity by 2022, and 368 over by 2025 — the year Adelaide Botanic would hit its ceiling of 1250.

READ THE STATE GOVERNMENT’S ANALYSIS

With Year 7s factored in and no zone change, Botanic would be full by 2022, with an overflow of 99 students that year who would have to go to Adelaide High. The annual overflow would rise to 249 children by 2025, by which time Adelaide High would need a capacity of 2455.

The Government says that would be too big, expensive, and potentially unfeasible without encroaching on more of the parklands.

If the rezoning had cut families in the wealthy inner north and east, they would have likely been redirected to Roma Mitchell Secondary or Norwood Morialta High. The figures show more than a third of the extra capacity to be built at Roma Mitchell — 179 of 500 places — is for growth other than Year 7s.

And Norwood Morialta’s consolidation onto one campus at Magill means that campus already has to grow by more than 1000 students by 2022, including 300 Year 7 places.

By contrast, the inner west and south schools that families have been rezoned to — Springbank Secondary, Underdale High and Plympton International — are each 300 or more students below capacity.

The analysis found population growth pressure most acute in the far northern and southern suburbs, where “low SES families have traditionally chosen public schools”, and inner suburbs, especially in the east, where “professional families are increasingly choosing public schools”.

As a result, public schools took 93 per cent of rise in primary school aged children from 2011-16. And fewer public primary kids are going private when they reach high school age. “This analysis clearly demonstrates the extreme enrolment pressures being placed on many of our government schools,” Education Minister John Gardner said.

THE TRENDS PUTTING PRESSURE ON OUR PUBLIC SCHOOLS

BEFORE 2005, births averaged 17,500 a year. From 2007 it rose to 20,000.

OUTER northern Adelaide had 4893 more primary school aged kids in 2016 than in 2011 (Census data). Far southern Adelaide had 1203 more. Inner suburbs (especially east) had 3738 more.

93 PER CENT of growth in primary aged kids from 2011-16 was absorbed by public schools.

UNTIL 2014, loss of public kids in Years 1-8 to private schools was 1000 a year. In 2015 it fell to 600. The trend continues.

WHERE extra capacity is to be built, the percentage of new places that are NOT a result of moving Year 7 into high school: Playford 46, Roma Mitchell 36, Seaton 33, Unley 29, Heathfield 28, Henley 20, Seaview 19, Craigmore 13, Golden Grove 5, Gawler 4, Wirreanda 1, Mount Compass 73, Kapunda 54, Pt Lincoln 40, Pt Augusta 25, Nuriootpa 4, Others 0.