AEMO report warns of Victoria’s deteriorating electricity system putting strain on SA supply
The energy market operator says South Australia will also be at risk if Victoria’s electricity problems worsen this summer, pushing power supply to the limit and increasing the risk of blackouts.
The deteriorating electricity system in Victoria is driving up prices, threatens to push South Australian supply to the limit this summer and has created a risk of blackouts.
The tough assessment has been made in the nation’s main forecast report by the Australian Energy Market Operator, which will be released today.
And it has issued a tough warning on the future of SA’s energy security when key power stations go offline.
AEMO’s managing director Audrey Zibelman said the analysis demonstrated the need for urgent action and prudent planning and investment to deliver affordable and reliable electricity supply to consumers all year, but particularly during summer.
Her organisation was doing what it could to plug the gaps in the short-term – such as buying services for generators to be on standby, she said.
“However … we are finding this type of reactive action is imposing higher costs on consumers and risks to reliability which are not sustainable over the longer term,” she said.
Federal Energy Minister Angus Taylor said last year 200,000 Victorians lost power and this summer wasn’t looking any better. “(There) is no guarantee that the lights won’t go out in Victoria this summer,” he said.
The report says that two major power stations in Victoria – Loy Yang A and Mortlake 2 – have broken down and if not fixed by the peak summer period, “pose a significant risk of insufficient supply”.
Any outages in Victoria cause risks to SA because the operator must share the pain of blackouts across regions.
AEMO says SA will have a slight increase in risks of blackouts from 2020-21 after the Torrens Island units close and a steep increase in 2023-24 when the Osborne Power Station closes.
Victoria will look to SA for help but this may not always be possible, because both might share “tight supply-demand balance,” the Electricity Statement of Opportunities report says.
The report notes AGL expects its new SA power station at Barker Inlet to begin operating this December, which will help SA and Victoria.
But it has not taken into account AGL delaying closure of two units at Torrens Island – because SA Government permission has not yet been granted. Nor has it factored in the Government’s diesel generators because they are not part of the market, although they are “expected to be available for use as a last resort to avoid load shedding.