Adelaide Christmas Day weather: Prawn salad by the pool or roast turkey under the pergola?

A hot, dry day is sounding like the perfect Christmas Day for Adelaide. But how will La Nina’s crazy weather end a year that’s been anything but predictable?

It’s looking like it could be a prawn-on-the-barbecue kind of Christmas Day in Adelaide, with a maximum temperature of around 30C after a balmy Christmas Eve.

While our climate experts warn forecasting Christmas Day weather this far out is always tricky, it seems to be shaping up as being as close to average as you can get and quite contrary to the rest of 2020.

Bureau of Meteorology climatologist Dr Naomi Benger said the average maximum temperature for the week ending December 25 could see the mercury fall between the average of 27 to 30 degrees.

Dr Benger said Christmas Eve could be warmer, by up to two degrees, than the minimum long-term average of 15 to 18 degrees for that week.

The instability however of La Nina and four of the last five Christmases recording much higher than average maximum temperatures means a plan B and C is probably a good idea.

“I’d say if you’re having your barbecue under cover, then you’re well sorted,” Dr Benger said.

“Christmas Day is always tricky because its sits in the middle of this dynamic, changeable spring weather and hot, stable summer weather,” she said. “It’s never clear cut.”

Although it’s more likely to affect the eastern seaboard during summer, this year’s main climate driver (La Nina) is known for bringing humidity and rain.

The last damp Adelaide Christmas was in 2016 when 0.2mm fell after a record-breaking maximum of 41.3 degrees Celsius. The year before – 1.4mm hit the ground and before that, a dry spell of 14 years.

Metro Adelaide weather data from 1977 at the Kent Town observation site shows our coldest December 25 was recorded at 17.9 degrees Celsius in 2006.

Our hottest was 41.3 degrees Celsius in 2016.

The official forecast for Christmas Day is due on Friday, however the most accurate data could be up to just one day out due to these dynamic, fast moving weather features.

If La Nina impacts our Christmas Day weather, it could be an indoor affair on December 25.