Too early to write off Nick Xenophon’s SA Best in South Australian election

IT’S far too early to write off Nick Xenophon’s chances of wreaking havoc at the state election less than a fortnight away, simply because his honeymoon period is over.

IT’S far too early to write off Nick Xenophon’s chances of wreaking havoc at the state election, less than a fortnight away, simply because his honeymoon period is over.

The SA Best leader led as preferred Premier in a statewide Newspoll published on the weekend, on 29 per cent, ahead of Jay Weatherill (28 per cent) and Steven Marshall (24 per cent).

Advertiser-Galaxy polls taken during the campaign have shown SA Best within striking distance in the blue-ribbon Liberal seat of Heysen, in the Adelaide Hills, and the Labor stronghold of Giles.

Campaign strategists across various parties consider SA Best a strong chance in Port Adelaide, held by Education Minister Susan Close, the Riverland seat of Chaffey (Liberal frontbencher Tim Whetstone), Elizabeth and Taylor (Labor-held northern suburbs) and Hammond (Liberal).

This is hardly a surprise, given the Newspoll showed SA Best with statewide primary support of 21 per cent, compared to the Liberals’ 32 per cent and Labor’s 30 per cent.

This is a strong result for a third party, just two weeks out from polling day.

Yet it is a slump from an extraordinary Newspoll, published on December 19, which showed Mr Xenophon was backed by 46 per cent as preferred premier and SA Best’s primary support at 32 per cent.

Importantly, the pre-Christmas Newspoll of 800 voters was taken from October 12 to December 17, starting just after Mr Xenophon’s stunning announcement on October 6 that he would quit the Senate to contest the eastern Adelaide seat of Hartley.

In recent days, SA Best has begun focusing on highly localised campaign promises in target seats. Latest polling is consistent with Mr Xenophon’s long-term ratings, about 20-25 per cent. This might wane further, but if it holds or grows the question is whether SA Best can garner enough votes to win seats, or just decide outcomes through its voters’ preferences.