SA election 2018 analysis: Nick Xenophon’s SA Best performs well in polls but votes may spread too thin

CONCENTRATION is the key to winning a seat in State Parliament, and SA Best looks like it’s been spread too thin.

• Monday’s Advertiser-Galaxy poll
• Nick Xenophon’s rap TV ad is so hokey that it might just work

CONCENTRATION is the key to winning a seat in State Parliament, and SA Best looks like it’s been spread too thin.

SA Best Leader Nick Xenophon’s new party has been getting amazing numbers in statewide polls for the past two years. With as much as 32 per cent at Christmas, he’s been more popular than any other third party SA has ever had.

But that doesn’t necessarily mean victories in the Lower House of SA Parliament.

A vote spread thinly across the state, as it seems that Mr Xenophon’s has been, is perfect for someone trying to get into the Senate. The state is one big electorate where just grabbing a modest share from everyone is enough to win a seat. In the Lower House, parties must win a large share in certain suburbs and leave rivals in the dust.

Mr Xenophon simply isn’t doing that through the Adelaide Hills, where he was expected to win seats. It is now entirely possible that the Opposition can hold back the orange tide and new questions are being asked about whether Mr Xenophon can even win the seat in which he is running.

There also is new evidence here for the theory that Mr Xenophon’s support generally is on the slide. Major party sources say that the 22 per cent he’s now polling in Heysen is well down from recent months.

It represents a further slip from the 25 per cent in Morialta recorded last week and high 30s scored across Adelaide in seat polls taken last month.

Many assume that slide will continue. It seems Mr X’s cheesy campaign ad didn’t give the huge boost he may have been hoping for. But the other theme running through these polls is volatility. In a chaotic race, it’s still possible that what goes down could yet go up.