SA Best Leader Nick Xenophon’s strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats

HE’s up-ended the campaign for the state election with an unprecedented and audacious bid to shatter the major parties’ dominance — but Nick Xenophon has already made some stumbles.

• Disputed claims about Nick Xenophon this week:

• Weatherill claims SA Best candidates will quit party if elected
• Marshall claims SA Best leader made secret deal with Labor
• The most influential people in the state

SA Best leader Nick Xenophon has up-ended the campaign for the state election with an unprecedented and audacious bid to shatter the major parties’ dominance.

Chief Reporter Paul Starick analyses this South Australian political phenomenon.

STRENGTHS

FOR more than 20 years, Nick Xenophon has enjoyed a charmed life as an anti-politician – even as he became a powerbroker in two parliaments.

The key to this success has been, to borrow a phrase, “keeping the bastards honest”. By prominently and repeatedly eschewing the trappings of office, he has been able to convince voters he is in politics for them, not for self-interest.

Evaporating trust globally in politicians and the machinery of government has created a vacuum for anti-establishment figures, which most notably propelled Donald Trump to the US presidency and put the UK on the brink of Brexit.

Mr Xenophon and his candidates withstood a fierce major-party barrage to get three senators and a lower house member elected at the 2016 federal election.

Success breeds success and this result demonstrated Mr Xenophon can transfer his personal brand to others in a basic party structure.

Unlike other parties, the Nick Xenophon Team/SA Best has a centrist image. This means, unusually, it draws second preferences from both Labor and Liberal parties.

For years Mr Xenophon’s enemies have expected his extraordinary support to crumble. Thus far, they have been disappointed.

One of Nick Xenophon’s earlier stunts, the Pollies Gravy Train, in 2004.

WEAKNESSES

THE biggest risk for Mr Xenophon has already started to emerge – spreading himself and his limited resources too thinly.

SA Best risks becoming a victim of its soaring opinion poll ratings. This popularity, thus far, has guaranteed Mr Xenophon prominence and coveted coverage for his candidates. But the master of spin made a rare stumble in a pre-Christmas interview with The Advertiser’sstate political editor Daniel Wills, when he left the door open to becoming premier if his party secures sufficient seats.

This changed the scope of his stated mission of holding the balance of power and ruling out a ministry. Rather than keeping the bastards honest, he flirted with becoming one of the bastards.

This sharpened the focus on SA Best’s policies or, more particularly, the lack of detail so far. This then triggered a blunder when Mr Xenophon last Friday put the state health budget at $3.6 billion, not $5.9 billion.

His major-party opponents will seek to capitalise on SA Best’s lack of resources to expose more failures on important detail.

Critically, they also have networks of volunteers for doorknocking and cash for advertising that SA Best lacks.

Then Federal Senator Nick Xenophon and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull.

OPPORTUNITIES

FORMER prime minister John Howard famously said “the times will suit me”. Eventually they did. Mr Xenophon’s biggest opportunity is presented by the global unrest with established political orders.

Since he was elected to the SA upper house in 1997, then the Senate in 2007, he has forged and maintained trust with large swaths of the electorate. He has done this by seizing on issues from the River Murray to submarine construction, then uncannily coming down on the right side of the debate.

This judgment, coupled with an ability to garner attention through humour, stunts and populism, has put him and his candidates on the cusp of gathering a large amount of votes and seats. If SA Best candidates finish second, they are likely to win on preferences.

The stated aim is to secure sufficient lower house seats to hold the balance of power. This would make Mr Xenophon kingmaker, giving him power without responsibility of office. In effect, he would hold the government in his hands, able to topple it if his demands for accountability are not met.

Premier Jay Weatherill, Opposition Leader Steven Marshall and SA Best Leader Nick Xenophon. Picture: AAP / Roy Vandervegt

THREATS

BOTH major parties have rounded on Mr Xenophon like never before. Premier Jay Weatherill has sought to paint him as a closet Liberal, pointing out former Liberals among SA Best candidates and arguing SA Best was effectively a second Liberal Party. In turn, Opposition Leader Steven Marshall has accused Mr Xenophon of forging a deal with Labor to return the government to power.

Mr Xenophon has sought to make announcing candidates a substitute for detailed policy releases. This lack of policy detail, along with the costing blunder, represents a substantial threat to SA Best’s standing as a credible third party.

One Labor strategist told The Advertiser that Mr Xenophon’s support was broad but lacks any depth. If any issues fester and breach his uncanny political force field, SA Best’s support could collapse suddenly and spectacularly.