Rex Jory: Labor may find it harder to win the next state election than some think

CAN Labor win the next state election in 2022? The short answer is: of course. But anyone who thinks Labor will automatically waltz back into power is living in Cloud Cuckooland, writes Rex Jory.

CAN Labor win the next state election in 2022? The short answer is: of course. But a slightly longer answer is: of course, but it won’t be easy.

Labor members, commentators and other apologists have consistently said the March 17 election result was not a triumph for the Liberals and the outcome certainly wasn’t a landslide.

The final figures don’t quite support that view. The Liberals won 25 of the 47 House of Assembly seats in their own right. Labor won 19 seats.

The Liberals can rely on the vote of Mt Gambier independent former Liberal MP Troy Bell and independent Geoff Brock, whose seat of Frome is a natural Liberal seat. So effectively there are 27 non-Labor seats.

Labor has 19 seats plus the support of independent Frances Bedford in Florey. So, in essence the House of Assembly is split 27-non Labor to 20 Labor. Not a landslide, perhaps, but not a bad result for right-of-centre politics.

The Liberals snared nearly 38 per cent of the primary vote to Labor’s 34. The Liberals suffered a greater loss of primary votes than Labor because of the 13 per cent support for SA Best. Anyone who thinks Labor will automatically waltz back into power in 2022 is living in Cloud Cuckooland.

To put the result in perspective Don Dunstan won the 1970 election with 27 seats to the non-Labor vote of 20 seats. When David Tonkin’s Liberals beat Labor in 1979 they won 25 seats. So a 27-20 result on March 17 might be one-seat short of a landslide, but that’s all. It is hard for Oppositions to regain government in contemporary politics. Governments have an army of personal staff working together with the resources of the public service. The Opposition’s resources are meagre.

Parliamentary and electorate staff, high visibility in the electorate, plus the enormous power of new technology and social media, give sitting members a huge advantage.

Technology played a significant part in the March 17 election. So-called robo calls (those annoying early-evening recorded telephone calls which swamped the electorate), plus identification of specific voters and their likely preferences, allowed both parties to limit time and resources on random doorknocking and telephone contact.

Robo calls used specific messages for individual voters — the message to the elderly was different from young people. The sophistication of these techniques will only improve.

Social media allows parties to pump out policies and messages at any time of the day. An accusation, or an opponent’s new policy, can be refuted in moments. The story quickly becomes the denial in the 24-hour news cycle.

Much has been made of the Liberals’ inexperience in Government. But no Labor member has ever been in Opposition. Their longest-serving veteran, outgoing leader Jay Weatherill entered Parliament in 2002 at the election won by Labor’s Mike Rann.

Opposition, like government, has to be learned. Resources in Opposition are scarce. It is not a matter of asking the public service to get information, flesh out a policy or carry out research.

In Opposition it is possible — and given the current federal polling figures, quite likely — Labor may have to work with a federal Labor Government. Interest rates for home loans and businesses will almost certainly rise between now and 2022 with a federal Labor government possibly getting the blame. If unemployment rises it could be federal Labor (with a spin-off to state Labor) which will carry the odour.

This would not be a good platform for Labor to launch a winning campaign in 2022.

Labor accepted defeat and stepped out of office without rancour. Mr Weatherill was dignified and gracious in defeat.

But among Labor supporters there is a belief that the election result was an aberration, that Labor will automatically return to the Treasury benches in 2022 and continue with its current, if interrupted, agenda.

That may be true. New Premier Steven Marshall and his government may only be in for one term. But Labor might find it harder than it thinks to get them out.