Michael McGuire: Will Steven Marshall really hand over Xenophon to Weatherill to allow Labor to stay in power

IF the Liberals come up short by one or two seats and the only route to power is through Xenophon, what will they do, writes Michael McGuire.

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AMID all the madness and mayhem of this election campaign a little question still sits at the back of many skulls. Will Steven Marshall really refuse to negotiate with Nick Xenophon if it means the difference between forming government and not?

Will he really hand over Xenophon to Jay Weatherill to allow Labor to stay in power and rack up a scarcely credible 20 years in government?

Marshall was unequivocal when asked last October about whether he could see himself forging some sort of deal with Xenophon. “We’ve already ruled that out. We do not want to form a coalition after the next election.”

So that’s that.

While Marshall’s line in the sand moment has worried a few within a party – for whom Opposition has become as natural as breathing – and wonder why he needed to make such a declaration, others back the approach saying the party was consigning itself to defeat if it pursued any other course.

The optimists are also starting to contemplate, or perhaps just place their trust in blind luck, that Xenophon will not hold the balance of power after the election.

In an election where every alternative is on the table the only stone-cold certainty is that Labor won’t reach 24 seats and govern in its own right. The odds on the Liberals reaching the magic 24 are long, but not in the realm of fantasy.

We’ve already ruled that out. We do not want to form a coalition after the next election.

The latest Liberal narrative revolves around the fate of the other independent candidates. The thinking being that if some combination of former Liberals Troy Bell in Mt Gambier and Duncan McFetridge in Morphett and even Geoff Brock in Frome are elected then the Liberals can circumvent Xenophon and cobble together a majority.

Another scenario being examined is what happens if Xenophon loses in Hartley but several of his candidates win. The Liberals are contemplating matching Labor’s tactic of splitting preferences in Hartley to make life more difficult for Xenophon.

The Libs believe if Xenophon is out of the picture then everything changes.

As Weatherill has consistently pointed out, SA Best is full of ex-Libs, so after the election they could all just return home. And given Weatherill’s other claim that SA Best candidates are already jumping ship, then they are more likely to side with the Libs than Labor.

The Marshall ban on negotiating with Xenophon does not extend to the rest of the SA Best candidates.

These are all hypotheticals but the Libs can’t ignore that the other hypothetical – of Xenophon holding the balance of power – is still probably the most likely outcome.

What is their plan B? Nobody in the party is admitting to one just yet. But if the Libs come up short by one or two seats and the only route to power is through Xenophon, what will they do?

Marshall would either have to break a major campaign promise on day one or quit. And as Julia “carbon tax’’ Gillard and Tony “more or less everything” Abbott found out, breaking promises is politically toxic .

It’s unlikely Xenophon is in much of a mood to negotiate with Marshall anyway. He could refuse and demand the Liberals send someone else. Even beyond the legal stoush between them, Xenophon has been surprised by the hostility expressed to him even when the cameras are off and the media out of hearing.

Marshall has come too far to back off now which means it all comes down to how well he, and his party, handle the next 24 days. Compared to Labor, the past two Liberal campaigns have been inept.

Marshall fell apart in the last days of the 2014 campaign (“vote Labor”) but was let down by a hopeless party machine, old-fashioned tactics and a belief that Labor would crumble under the weight of its own history.

Four years down the track there is evidence the Libs have improved, Marshall after a couple of underwhelming years has muscled up, but Labor’s cynical, smooth professionalism is again in evidence, throwing around billions of dollars in crucial seats and confident its expertise on the ground with its volunteers is better than anything its opponents can muster.

Labor will have no problem negotiating with Xenophon, the Liberals, with or without Marshall, need to find their own solution.