Michael McGuire: If Peter Malinauskas takes the Labor leadership, he can expect to keep it for a long time

IN the volatile world of politics where a crisis is only ever a poll or two away, SA Labor’s leadership loyalty has been remarkable — just two leaders in 24 years. Given this track record, whoever takes the top job can expect to be there for some time.

IT’S a remarkable statistic — over the past 24 years, the South Australian Labor Party has had just the two leaders.

In the volatile, disposable world of politics where a crisis is only ever a poll or two away, Labor’s leadership loyalty has been remarkable.

Mike Rann took the helm in 1994 with Labor still recovering from a battering in the previous year’s election, which had been dominated by the debacle of the collapse of the State Bank. Rann become Premier in 2002 and lasted until 2011 when he was ousted by Jay Weatherill.

In the same time frame, the state Liberals have had seven leaders, a revolving door approach which partly explains why they had been out of power for 16 years until Saturday’s election victory.

Now, Labor is contemplating who should become its next leader. And given its track record, whoever wins the job can expect to be in place for some time to come.

As former Treasurer and potential leadership contender Tom Koutsantonis pointed out this week, every Labor opposition leader since Don Dunstan resigned in 1979 has become premier.

The overwhelming favourite for the job is Peter Malinauskas, who until the election was the state’s health minister.

Former premier Jay Weatherill watches on as Peter Malinauskas, as health minister, speaks to the media before the election. Picture: AAP / Kelly Barnes

At the election, Malinauskas lost that job but moved from the Legislative Council to the lower house seat of Croydon, paving the way for him to have a crack at the leadership.

Other names have been thrown up as alternative options, including former transport minister Stephen Mullighan and Mr Koutsantonis.

Mullighan, who didn’t return calls from The Advertiser, has ruled himself out of the running, while Koutsantonis only offered a terse “no comment’’ when contacted.

But some of Koutsantonis’s colleagues have taken his high media profile in the days since the election as a sign he is, at the very least, considering making a run.

Malinauskas also declined to comment but it is believed he wants to talk to colleagues and family before deciding if he wants to tackle the top job.

Several Labor sources agree, however, that if Malinauskas wants the job, he will get it. He is regarded as personable, bright and with a level of charisma.

Former treasurer Tom Koutsantonis has no commented on whether he is considering a run at the Labor leadership. Picture: AAP / David Mariuz

He would represent a break with the past, even though as leader of the Shoppies’ union he was part of the delegation that tapped Rann on the shoulder in 2011.

There is also a degree of confidence that the party may only be out of power for one term and if that is the case, then Malinauskas is the best person to start the rebuild.

Labor has been left with at least 18 seats, which is a solid foundation to build on and has not lost any of its better public performers. Even premier Jay Weatherill is still around on the backbench to offer support.

“The good thing is this is not a State Bank scenario where we are locked out for two terms,’’ said one Labor source.

“The Libs have shown an ability to blow themselves up in the past and the things that divide them are never far below the surface.’’

Malinauskas’s cause is helped by being part of the dominant right wing Labor Unity faction. It’s an odd quirk of the Labor’s factional system that while Unity has been the dominant force within the party for the last two decades, it has produced no leaders of its own.

It supported the unaligned Rann as leader, then the left-wing Weatherill, illustrating its pragmatism when deciding who was the best hope to take Labor into government.

The pragmatism this time around will more likely be demonstrated by the party’s choice of deputy leader.

“One of the reasons Labor has been so successful over the last 16 years is there has been an acceptance between the left and the right that there should be a power-sharing arrangement,’’ one observer said.

“While Peter Malinauskas is by far the standout candidate, it makes sense to offer something to the lefties.’’

The most-mentioned name from the left for the deputy spot is former Education Minister Susan Close.

Despite the disaster of the TAFE scandal, Close is seen internally as a decent operator and helps balance the gender equation, especially with Vickie Chapman now installed as the state’s first female deputy premier.

Former education minister Susan Close. Picture: AAP / Matt Loxton

State Labor is not a big fan of contested ballots — neither Rann or Weatherill faced a challenger in the party room — so if Malinauskas is the prime contender, he will be elected unchallenged.

The timing of when Caucus will meet to confirm its new leadership is still unclear. Party whip Tom Kenyon has lost his seat of Newland so that may cause some confusion but it is likely no meeting will be called until the results of all seats are known.

Labor will also be keen to let the dust settle in the wake of the election defeat and it might not elect a new leader until after Easter.

Once that is done, it will be keen to get back to work and exploit any weaknesses it identifies in a new Liberal government drastically short of governing experience.