Opinion: TikTok and free lunches were never going to save Labor

Steven Miles has done all that was asked of him, but the die was cast for Labor long before this campaign, writes Cameron Milner.

There is little Premier Steven Miles won’t do in his futile attempt to hold on to power. Picture: Adam Head

Premier Steven Miles has done all Labor could have asked of him, but the electoral die was cast well before these past four weeks.

This state election was well and truly over by the time the campaign started.

Voters had clearly made up their minds how they wanted to vote and were just waiting for the polling booths to open.

What’s clearest from this lacklustre and frankly bizarre election campaign was despite the millions spent on advertising, the TikTok moments, and half baked ideas like free lunches for primary school kids, the Labor campaign has not shifted the inevitable.

Full credit to David Crisafulli for holding to being small target, being boring and a cure for insomnia.

He will become premier because voters did not want Labor – not because he came with a plan to govern.

Labor will be reduced to a defensive position behind the Brisbane Line, losing a swath of previous impervious regional city seats on Saturday.

Multiple pollsters and conversations across the political aisle show that the further you go from Brisbane, the worse and worse it gets for Labor.

It is exactly what The Courier-Mail’s YouGov poll showed with its geographic breakdown of voting intention.

Robbie Katter’s party is set to wield more power in the north. Picture: Evan Morgan

In some areas the situation is so bad the LNP might lose seats to the Katter’s Australian Party, because Labor is now running third and their preferences will flow to the minor party.

Barron River is gone, KAP looks the goods in Cook and Mulgrave, and Cairns is at best lineball.

All three Townsville seats are shredded, with a chance KAP could jag Mundingburra.

Further south, Mackay is in trouble and Keppel has already elected James Ashby as its next member of Parliament.

Bundaberg, Hervey Bay, Nicklin and Caloundra all look like going LNP.

Labor is also in trouble in the outer suburban seats north of the Brisbane City Council boundary: those covered or influenced by Peter Dutton.

Pumicestone will go LNP and election-night watchers will be biting their nails over Pine Rivers and Kurwongbah.

Aspley and Mansfield are also most likely lost to Labor, along with Redlands.

Redcliffe without Yvette D’Ath is a massive ask, and it is telling that Labor has diverted crucial resources to sandbag nearby Sandgate, which sits on a 17 per cent margin.

Seats like Springwood and Capalaba are combat zones.

Labor’s genuine star and future leader, Meaghan Scanlon, is up against it in Gaven and the unions are clearly worried about Macalister.

Amanda Stoker is yet to be admitted to David Crisafulli’s cabinet. Picture: Liam Kidston

In Brisbane itself Labor will no doubt indulge in self congratulations that the vile introduction of US politics into this campaign over their wild claims about abortion rights have probably thwarted the Greens from winning some of inner city seats.

Labor should really ask itself was it worth importing the worst of US fearmongering over women’s rights to win Cooper, McConnell and have a shot at holding Greenslopes from the Greens?

What happens after Saturday within the LNP will be fascinating to watch.

Talent such as Amanda Stoker has so far been locked out of the first Crisafulli cabinet, and Cairns and Townsville have always expected cabinet representation.

And so how do you keep the electoral promise of no change on the front bench?

Mr Crisafulli won’t stick to that, because voters actually won’t care.

A few timeserving logs that nobody knows will likely be ejected to the bloated back bench.

Then comes the 100-day review of all of Labor’s decisions.

This will be crucial for Mr Crisafulli and his very talented treasurer-to-be David Janetzki to guide.

It will be a “bring out your dead” moment, and set up a massive budget reset, including cutting waste and sacking unneeded public servants.

Did you know the Department of Health alone employs 148 spin doctors as public servants?

People should not wonder why Labor will lose Townsville when in focus groups voters told of FIFO magistrates who, when dealing with offenders who had published vision of themselves breaking in and stealing cars on TikTok, would send them to diversionary programs and not jail.

David Crisafulli will be different from former LNP premiers Campbell Newman (left) and Rob Borbidge.

Then comes the Olympics, a giant hangover from John Coates fitting up the Queensland taxpayer.

It is massively unpopular with voters, which is why Labor post-Palaszczuk kicked it into the long grass.

But we do have to make it work, and it is a once-in-a-generation opportunity to build a massive new stadium at Victoria Park.

This will require courage to lead Queenslanders to embrace the vision, but we do not have a moment to miss as we are already well behind.

Mr Crisafulli is neither a Rob Borbidge or a Campbell Newman.

He will be very much be his own man.

In fact, he could do a Peter Beattie and set the LNP up for back-to-back election victories.

But he needs to eschew the timidity and small-targetism if he wants to be a long-term Queensland premier.

Labor, meanwhile, needs to reflect that politics is cyclical.

Covid-19 probably hid a swing that was already there against Labor, so the party is copping a double dose of voter fatigue and disappointment at this election.

Losing the regions will hurt Labor if it turns into the Brisbane Labor Party.

You can’t win government only from the southeast, and the party will need to be led by a centrist and not an Anthony Albanese-style lefty to win government again.

Cameron Milner is GXO Strategies director and a former Queensland Labor state secretary

Originally published as Opinion: TikTok and free lunches were never going to save Labor