The State: South Australia’s sway in Canberra may be on the way after this year’s Federal Election

Former prime minister John Howard famously quipped that politics is governed by the iron laws of arithmetic — and a state that’s punched above its weight in the nation’s capital could find its influence slipping when this federal election is run and done.

• Mayo electorate poll: Rebekha Sharkie vs Georgina Downer

Former prime minister John Howard famously quipped that politics is governed by the iron laws of arithmetic and a state that’s recently punched above its weight in the nation’s capital could find its influence slipping when this federal election is run and done.

Despite an unshakeable local belief that our state is routinely dudded in favour of the eastern states, there’s a firm view in Canberra’s corridors of power that the middle bottom bit of the country has gained far more than its fair share of the pie and should just shut up and be thankful for what it has.

At the last federal election, SA was a key battleground state as the major parties and a surging Nick Xenophon Team battled over seats as far flung as Whyalla and West Lakes.

In the Senate, it was a free-for-all that threatened to splinter in all directions, and big spending promises flowed as the major parties left little in reserve, having been burned before by complacency.

The most significant was a united front on Adelaide as host of the $90 billion ship and submarine building program, as a Coalition that oversaw the exit of the car industry made a belated grand gesture to SA industry after having flirted with an offshore option.

And the fact that senior SA federal Liberal, and former defence industries minister, Christopher Pyne was battling to hold his own seat in a three-way showdown could only have helped the state’s interests in the Cabinet room.

LISTEN: FEDERAL ELECTION PODCAST: PYNE & ELLIS

As another former prime minster in Paul Keating famously quipped: “In the race of life, always back self-interest – at least you know it’s trying”.

The recent federal redistribution dealt SA a double numerical blow.

Not only did our relative lack of population growth compared to other states lead to SA being stripped of one seat in Canberra and reduced to 10, the shuffling of electorates also meant that only one is now widely considered to be a genuine marginal.

A pair of Advertiser-YouGov Galaxy polls over the past fortnight indicate a strong likelihood of Mr Pyne’s protégé James Stevens getting up as the Liberal candidate in Sturt and the Centre Alliance’s Rebekha Sharkie is maintaining a massive 43 per cent of the primary vote, which suggests the Hills and Fleurieu seat of Mayo is hers as long as she wants it.

That’s left the vast bulk of political promises and attention flowing into the one place where it can get a return on investment – the inner southwestern suburbs seat of Boothby that’s held by Liberal MP Nicolle Flint on a slender 2.7 per cent margin.

Labor has long held hopes of winning the seat but always fallen short, even when another former prime minister in local-girl-done-good Julia Gillard was being used as the proxy candidate on much of the party’s material at the 2010 federal election.

Privately, a lot of Labor hardheads view Boothby as a siren call. It always seems close enough to be grasped but has forever been just out of reach.

If that suspicion is confirmed next weekend in an election where Labor does enough in other parts of the country, its possible that SA is treated as a flyover state in coming elections as both parties conclude there’s nothing that can be done to move the needle.

At a Press Club debate in Adelaide this week, SA senators representing four different parties pushed back on suggestions that the state was at risk of being a footnote in federal politics.

Labor’s Penny Wong pointed to what would be a very significant representation of four SA figures in several key portfolios should federal Opposition Leader Bill Shorten form a government after next weekend.

She would personally have immense influence as the presumptive foreign affairs minister and the gravitas that attends her position as one of the most experienced and respected figures in the party.

Port Adelaide’s Mark Butler is expected to take over the nation’s energy policy, an area where SA has a bigger interest than any state after suffering the largest price increases but also having the best resources to take advantage of a well-planned expansion of an existing renewables industry.

Australian Conservatives Senator Cory Bernardi, Greens Candidate Sarah Hanson-Young, Senator Simon Birmingham and Labor Senator for South Australia Penny Wong had it out at an election debate earlier in the week. Picture: David Mariuz/AAP

Liberal trade minister Simon Birmingham would take over from Mr Pyne as the top SA figure in a returned Coalition federal government.

His pitch was to point to things already delivered, from subs to the national space agency headquarters, many of which were committed since the new and blander boundaries were known.

“Frankly, SA Has had no better friend than the Federal Government over the last few years,” Senator Birmingham said.

“You can also see the benefit of having (Liberal Premier) Steven Marshall working closely alongside Scott Morrison, that’s delivering the type of co-operation that is getting far more done for SA than we used to see from the hostility of Jay Weatherill’s state Labor government.”

The Greens’ Sarah Hanson-Young and Conservative Cory Bernardi urged the state to put them in as watchdogs to keep whatever government is elected accountable to the needs of SA.

But it’s hard to escape the cynical and brutal truth that the arithmetic is no longer in SA’s favour.

The new electoral map has divided the population into clear tribes. Despite all the goodwill in the world, that takes from SA’s power and adds to its vulnerability.