Sam Shahin: Gladys Berejiklian has done the nation a favour, now other leaders must take heed – Covid-zero is an unrealistic target

It’s a blessing in disguise that Covid is ravaging NSW, writes business leader Sam Shahin. Outbreaks and deaths are inevitable – and it’s time for leaders to face reality.

Indeed we are the victim of our own early successes with Covid-19. But the time is right now to wake up and make good.

The future is bright. But between now and the new future there is a sobering reality that every Australian must acknowledge. It isn’t courage that’s needed, it is planning, foresight and clarity. A predictable-and-bright future is what I want to hear. I hope that we will be OK, with no guesswork or politics involved.

The key question is this: Have we learned our lesson? If I was Prime Minister Scott Morrison I’d be staring at the mirror thinking: I’ve messed up the early engagement with the population. I’ve messed up the messaging about vaccination. I could have procured vaccines better. I could have better distributed vaccines to where they’re required. Let me do this better now: We have a steady supply, let’s get the message right, and the messengers right. Both are equally important whether you’re for, or against, vaccination.

The science is provided by the credible Doherty report. The baseline case load is irrelevant. The message is clear. NSW, and Premier Gladys Berejiklian, have given us a peek into what’s coming. Whether we like it or not, we ought to be prepared.

Most of us would have gladly kept our heads in the sand and hoped that the pandemic will remain the concern of other nations. It’s clearly not.

I hope history will record that our nation owes Ms Berejiklian and her government a great debt in pushing our nation into making choices we would otherwise have procrastinated longer on.

More than 37 per cent of Australia’s population is fully vaccinated compared with about 53 per cent of Americans, 60 per cent of Germans, 64 per cent of the UK population, 67 per cent of Canada and 73 per cent of Spain.

In the UK, the seven-day average of Covid cases has been running at about 32,000 with an average 115 deaths per day. In the US, the seven-day average is close to 200,000 cases and about 1300 deaths per day. Those are terrifying numbers. But they’re real numbers. This is the new reality, and the sooner we acknowledge and prepare, the better and brighter the future.

This is the priority role of our leaders today. There is a major failure in focusing on what happened yesterday rather than what we plan to do tomorrow.

We are a smart nation and we can plan. The “train is coming” and the high beams are on. We must acknowledge that.

Whether we hit vaccination milestones is almost arbitrary. There will be bigger caseloads and there will be deaths and we need to accept that. There are deaths from various causes, all the time. In 2018, Australia recorded 1250 deaths directly linked to influenza virus. That figure was 36 last year. We need to accept the fact this disease is dangerous and that some of us will perish from it.

It is brave, or naive, of anyone to assume that any political leader will risk reappearing from behind the shadow of health advice, especially when we’re on the doorstep of state and federal elections.

Get the message right. We are a sporting nation. I would like those we all relate to to be the broadcasters headlining the messaging. Send epidemiologists back to the basement levels of big hospitals and challenge leaders to lead, to prepare the population for what’s coming, and to not act surprised when it does.

If Covid is not already in our community, it soon will be. We should not be afraid. We must trust that humanity has endured those challenges in the past and adapted.

We are one country. It is vaguely amusing to witness the rise and rise of the republics of Western Australia and Victoria, and the diminishing stature of the federation. If you were a state leader, you’d absolutely do the same. They’ve taken advantage of poor national governance and we, as a nation, may have crossed a line that will define our future, and our history. We must resist the damage being done to our nation in front of our own eyes.

How likely is that to happen? Your guess is as good as mine.

Sam Shahin is Peregrine Corporation executive director