Rex Patrick: SA Senator says subs program will be one strategic debacle after another

The submarines program is a debacle and I simply don’t believe eight new subs will be built in Adelaide, writes Senator Rex Patrick.

Scott Morrison has launched Australia on course for a defence procurement and strategic debacle of tremendous proportions.

The disastrous French-designed Attack-class submarine program has been aborted, with what I estimate as $2.3bn wasted. Now the Prime Minister is doubling up for an even bigger defence-procurement disaster.

The first of Mr Morrison’s proposed eight nuclear-powered submarines won’t be delivered until at least 19 years from now, in 2040.

That’s only if a number of difficult barriers can be overcome. This includes building from scratch a large nuclear-educated, skilled shipbuilding workforce; putting in place a nuclear-safety regime; building the vessels in South Australia and supporting them as they go to sea – all without a civil nuclear industry. This is a high-risk program.

I simply don’t believe the claim of the Prime Minister that eight new submarines will be built in Adelaide.

The more one looks at this, the more it looks like a wag-the-dog moment. There’s a big announcement, but when you look behind the curtain you see it lacks real planning or strategy.

The Virginia class, a class of nuclear-powered cruise missile fast-attack submarines, in service in the US navy.

As we wait for the first nuclear submarine to arrive, the first of our life-extended Collins-class submarines will have been retired. In 2039, we’ll have just five ageing Collins subs.

The first nuclear boat won’t be operational until some time after 2040. The last built may not be delivered until 2061.

The price will be well north of $100bn. And that will be too late to deal with Australia’s rapidly changing circumstances. Exercise Talisman Sabre this year saw two Chinese spy ships off our waters watching our manoeuvres.

The previous exercise had only one. A decade ago the Chinese navy couldn’t deploy too far beyond the South China Sea. Now they have a regular presence in the Indian Ocean.

Given their current rate of construction, they will soon have plenty of ships to operate across Australia’s trade routes. The Chinese navy will be a permanent and substantial presence on our doorstep.

We don’t need a $100bn-plus long-range nuclear-powered submarine fleet starting in 2040. What we need is a reliable and capable fleet of off-the-shelf military boats built here. For $20bn, we could start a program that would see Adelaide shipbuilders fully occupied from 2025 building the first of 20 highly capable German or Japanese designed boats. We would get more boats, at much less cost and faster, than Scott Morrison’s nuclear promises.

And we would continue to build our sovereign Australian submarines. That makes a lot more strategic-and-industrial sense than the Prime Minister’s sub fantasy.

Rex Patrick is a South Australian Senator