Power plan analysis: Labor facing shocking poll blackout without a quick fix

LABOR has just 12 months to prove that it can fix an energy crisis which has been years in the making. If not, voters will almost certainly turn out its lights, says Daniel Wills.

• State electricity crisis: Jay’s $550m power crisis gamble
• SA electricity crisis: Government unveils $550 million power plan
• Delayed reaction over electricity supply has proven costly: Opinion
• Needy the big losers as government forks out on energy plant: Opinion
• Energy group warns gas-fired power station might be ‘white elephant’

LABOR has just 12 months to prove that it can fix an energy crisis which has been years in the making. If not, voters will almost certainly turn out the lights on the State Government.

Electricity is one of the few political issues that reaches into the homes of busy people and jolts them into the fray.

Every single voter in the state is touched by the power crisis, whether it’s by a blackout on a sweltering day or the shock of a surging bill. And they ultimately cast judgment.

The current projections for next summer are shocking. Unless something dramatic changes, the state is at grave danger of frequent and crippling forced blackouts. Huge increases in already-high household power bills are almost locked in, and will start to be felt from July this year.

The state election is in March, just a few weeks after summer ends, and that has Labor sweating.

Voters who are again plunged into the dark next summer, despite paying the highest power bills in the country, will head to the garage to find both a generator and an electoral baseball bat.

With this plan, there are promises this dire scenario will be avoided, but certainly no guarantees.

Taken on face value, several headline measures in this plan are likely to win fast support.

An Advertiser-Galaxy poll last year showed an overwhelming number of South Australians still blame the ETSA privatisation of last century for many of the frustrations they endure today.

Premier Jay Weatherill’s plan for a state-owned gas-fired power station is pitched as an antidote to this anger. He’s betting another big infrastructure build — a power station which could be providing good pictures by election day — will flag Labor’s strengths.

Even the Government’s harshest critics usually acknowledge it has rebuilt much of SA in the past 15 years and commend its actions at Adelaide Oval and on South Rd.

Another big piece of infrastructure, targeted at power security, will neatly fit that narrative. However, it’s unclear how much real world impact the development would have and its unlikely such a backup would have saved SA in all but one of four recent major blackouts.

Labor has also doubled down on its support for renewable energy, something which polls have also shown to be extremely popular. With the plans to build the nation’s biggest battery, it is seeking to become an international case study in developing low-carbon technologies.

However, in their actions, Labor has also admitted something it won’t say aloud.

Much of this plan is aimed at undoing the damage caused by SA’s rush to build extreme levels of intermittent and unreliable energy, which have distorted the market and driven out baseload power sources.

Rules aimed at encouraging the building of new gas-fired power stations and batteries are all about offsetting the challenges posed by wind and solar.

But voters have a right to ask why a $550 million ambulance is being placed at the bottom of the cliff, when it would have been much easier to put a fence at the top a decade ago.

Like child protection reform and Transforming Health, the Government is seeking credit for having the courage to fix a problem that it deserves significant blame for having caused.

And the proof of all these proposed fixes, which seek to impact an extremely complex market that is already grossly dysfunctional, will be in the pudding.

Mr Weatherill yesterday indicated emergency measures, including large diesel generators, were being considered to help SA get through the coming summer. It’s some irony that such a dirty option may now be necessary.

Many of the measures the Government announced yesterday may have come too late. While batteries could be in place by summer, new power stations are unlikely to be. There is also serious concern that existing power stations like Torrens Island are close to shutdown.

The other thing Labor achieved yesterday was simply announcing “a plan”.

The Liberals have previously committed to backing batteries, abolishing the state renewable energy target and other measures including demand management to smooth out peaks in use.

Until now, Labor has looked hopelessly adrift on energy and at least now has an answer to the question of what in the hell it is going to do to keep the lights on other than just complain.

But the politics of energy are now very much like a light switch that has only two settings.

If Labor can pull off a miracle and put downward pressure on prices while keeping the lights on through an almost inevitable election campaign heatwave, it has a fighting chance.

Failing to do that undermines its entire message. At that point, it’s System Black.