Aston by-election lessons could save – or doom – SA Liberals | Kathryn Bermingham

The Liberals cannot simply wait for Labor to become unpopular, writes Kathryn Bermingham.

The demoralising result of last weekend’s Aston by-election holds lessons for Liberals across the country, and in South Australia they’d be wise to listen.

Labor’s historic win – the first time in a century that a federal government has won a seat from the opposition in a by-election – has left the Liberals with just three of the 26 federal seats across Melbourne.

In Adelaide, the story is replicated on a smaller scale. And the situation may get worse before it gets better for the party.

Following the loss of Boothby at the 2022 election, the Liberals now hold only one of the seven seats that represent most of the metropolitan area.

It all boils down to the inescapable reality that the Liberals must reclaim city voters if they are to have any chance at winning future elections.

If things continue the way they are going, the electorate of Sturt – held by James Stevens on a margin of just 0.5 per cent – will be extremely vulnerable at the next election.

Persistent speculation about former premier Steven Marshall’s resignation from the state parliament, and a by-election in his seat of Dunstan, would be a good indicator.

Mr Marshall’s margin is also 0.5 per cent, and Labor’s Cressida O’Hanlon, who ran at the state election, is considered to be a strong local candidate. The state Liberals see themselves as underdogs heading into the contest but have the advantage of controlling the timing of the poll.

To lose Dunstan would be a blow, but more pain could be in store if David Pisoni decided to resign from his previously safe seat of Unley midterm.

A loss there, where the Liberal margin was slashed from 11.5 to 2.2 per cent at last year’s election, would be crushing and leave the party with only a handful of metropolitan seats.

Mr Pisoni said he is committed to serving out the full term.

There’s no one solution, and efforts to fix the Liberal brand will take time.

For his part, Mr Stevens acknowledged the result in Aston was “a very serious message”, and “if replicated would see us barely exist in major metropolitan cities across Australia”.

Liberal MP for Sturt James Stevens hold his seat by a tiny margin. Picture: NCA NewsWire / David Mariuz

Former Premier Steven Marshall future in parliament remains the subject of speculation. Picture: Brenton Edwards

“It’s obvious that younger people, in particular, have completely turned away from the Liberal Party and we need to look at opportunities that are relevant to them and their lives to reconnect with them,” he told ABC Radio Adelaide this week.

He said the party knows what the major issues are, but “people don’t see the solution to those problems, at the moment, embodied within the Liberal Party”.

That’s a start. Groups like young people, renters and migrants have felt the party does not represent their interests.

Young people in particular will not vote for a party that has large elements that reject climate change, are obsessed with fringe issues such as transgender rights and elect hardly any women.

It will require concerted, targeted efforts to win them back.

The Liberals cannot simply wait for Labor to become unpopular and hope for an appetite for change.

They must first listen, then embrace major shifts in direction and policy to show voters they are serious about turning things around.