Dean Jaensch: Just what’s going on in federal politics right now?

AUSTRALIA is in an election campaign, though most voters will not be aware of it. So what’s really going on — and why are we at election time already?

• Is Malcolm getting into a muddle?
• Everything you wanted to know about double dissolution elections
• ‘Early budget’ points towards double dissolution option

AUSTRALIA is in an election campaign, although most voters will not be aware of it. The Shorten Labor Party is well into the action, releasing policies in all directions.

The Turnbull Coalition seems to be playing a waiting game. But it had better start its side of the campaign very soon, as its honeymoon period is well and truly over.

Mr Turnbull also has to make a decision very soon on the question of a double dissolution. But that decision will depend on what happens to three pieces of legislation.

The key one is the reform of the Senate election system. The Greens have promised to support the reform, which will provide 43 votes in the 76-member Senate, enough to pass the measure.

The crossbench independents and micro-parties are totally opposed to the reform — except for Nick Xenophon — because it has the potential to wipe them all out.

A second legislative component is based on the demand in the Constitution that there needs to be a “trigger” for a double dissolution: at least one Bill passed by the House of Representatives and twice refused by the Senate.

The Turnbull Government already has a “trigger”, and will be planning to achieve further reforms of the industrial relation system through its policy to re-establish the Australian Building and Construction Commission (ABCC). This was abolished by the Rudd-Gillard government.

There is a strong argument for the urgent passage of this legislation, following the report of the Royal Commission into trades unions, and regular appearances in the courts by the CFMEU. Labor, not unexpectedly, is implacably opposed to the ABCC, as are the Greens who are beneficiaries of large union donations.

Leader of the Opposition Bill Shorten and Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull in Parliament.

The crossbenchers are divided on this issue, and Mr Turnbull will have to work hard on them to win enough support to pass the Bill in the Senate. He will need the votes of six of the crossbenchers. But here it gets even more complicated.

The independents and micro-parties are opposed to the reforms of the Senate election system. If they are carried, these crossbenchers may seek vengeance and refuse to support the ABCC Bill. But that would play nicely into the Turnbull agenda for a double dissolution, held on the new election system, if it happens to pass.

The third legislative component follows a double dissolution. If the Turnbull Government wins the election, it has the constitutional authority to request a joint sitting of Parliament to decide the fate of the “trigger” Bills. There has only been one joint sitting, after the 1974 election.

The problem is that the Turnbull government would have to win the election with a big enough majority to outvote any Senate opposition in a joint sitting.

Confused? You are not alone, as I suspect some parliamentarians are also. There will be more tactics, plots, meetings, agreements and refusals before the nature of the election is settled. This week’s sittings will have to resolve the matter, so relax and enjoy watching our representatives tie themselves in knots.

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