Peter Stevafonic: China wants Taiwan and the island nation has no chance

Xi Jinping would be in for a serious reckoning if China actually backs up its Taiwan threats with action, writes Peter Stefanovic

There’s an old cartoon called “the last great act of defiance”. It’s an image of a giant eagle bearing down on a hapless little mouse.

With nothing to defend itself, and no hope of escape, the mouse holds up its hand and raises a middle finger in a glorious final salute before it’s presumably scooped up.

To me, the cartoon is the story of China and Taiwan. China is, of course, the eagle which wants little Taiwan badly – not to kill but to keep as its own plaything.

President Xi Jinping said as much on July 1 this year during what was arguably the most important speech of his life, ­overlooking Tiananmen Square as the country ­celebrated the 100th anniversary of the Chinese Communist Party.

It had all the trimmings. The military parades, choreographed choirs, and crowds of flag-waving CCP devotees – all commanded by the great Xi Jinping who wants to be leader for life.

It was a domestic celebration for an international audience and so the President’s address was full of blood and thunder. On Taiwan, it left no doubt as to what his intentions are.

“Resolving the Taiwan question and realising China’s complete reunification is a historic mission and an unshakeable commitment to the Communist Party of China,” Xi said.

“It is also a shared aspiration of all the sons and daughters of the Chinese nation.

“All of us, compatriots on both sides of the Taiwan Strait, must come together and move forward in unison.

“We must take resolute action to utterly defeat any attempt toward Taiwan independence and work together to create a bright future for national rejuvenation.

“No-one should underestimate the resolve, the will, and the ability of the Chinese people to defend their national sovereignty.”

Chinese President Xi Jinping walking past a military honour guard during a visit by the French president outside the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. Picture: Nicolas Asfouri / AFP)

Poor old Taiwan. A democratic island of 25 million people that no-one really recognises as a sovereign state.

Well, 15 nations do, including the economic powerhouses of Belize and Tuvalu, but no Taiwan backer has an official relationship with Beijing. So Taiwan just sits there in a kind of no man’s land in the South China Sea as big brother huffs and puffs. It endures daily grey war tactics including flights into its airspace by Chinese military jets.

Yes, Mr Xi. Peaceful reunification, you say. The signs certainly point to that.

Will China take Taiwan? If that is the question, the answer could be World War III. Because then it’s not just China v Taiwan. It’s a dictatorship versus a democracy, and every spectator will have to pick a side.

Like the eagle and the mouse, Taiwan has no chance of defending itself against China. At least not on its own.

According to Pentagon estimates, China has a military budget 13 times the size of Taiwan’s. It has more than a million ground troops and the biggest navy in the world. Taiwan on the other hand has fewer than 200,000 active-duty soldiers, and numbers are declining.

But Taiwan has unofficial friends, and lots of them are cheesed off at China, so this is where the ledger evens up. Last decade China picked a trade fight with Norway because it didn’t like who it gave a Nobel Peace Prize to, which shows how petty it can be.

If President Xi, as per his grand plan, makes a move on Taiwan, some big decisions from very powerful outside forces will have to be made. I ran that issue by Defence Minister Peter Dutton for the Sky News documentary China Rising. Remember, US President Joe Biden has already vowed to defend Taiwan.

“If you look at China, who are their friends? Well, for convenience, Russia. But are they a decades-long friend? Have they fought in wars together? Of course not,” Dutton answered.

“On the other side of the ledger you’ve got the rest of the world. No country wants to go to war with China. And no country wants to be at war with China.

“Who would come to the aid of the US? Well we know NATO would, and we know that our Five Eyes partners would. We know that India is very concerned about their own situation. And we know that Japan sees this as an existential threat to them as well.

“You could list off many countries – Singapore, Malaysia – that must make China think twice about their actions.”

China isn’t so full of itself to have not thought of the implications of what a raid on Taiwan would mean. Several senior US officials told me the US is not mortally wounded by the Afghanistan exit and would go to war again if it needed to. It’s power is not diminished.

Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a keynote speech at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation in Beijing. Picture: Li Xueren / Xinhua

China’s story is a grand one, which has been great for the world. The country has been dudded by colonial powers in the past and its rise from a minor player into a global heavyweight has truly been something. Lifting 850 million people out of poverty is a remarkable achievement.

But Xi is foolish to think any sort of aggression towards other nations – be it trade or military – won’t be met with resistance.

So, back to the cartoon. Maybe the mouse gets away in the end. Maybe, in the next frame, the eagle is taken out by an even bigger bird of prey. Or a number of them. Let’s just hope it doesn’t get to that.

China Rising screens on Tuesday and Wednesday this week at 8pm. Watch on Sky News on Foxtel or stream on Flash.