Paul Starick: Premier Steven Marshall’s plan to win the 2022 South Australian election | The State

The Premier will borrow a Liberal icon’s famous move to extricate himself from minority government and win the next election, writes Paul Starick.

Premier Steven Marshall will ask voters who they trust to create jobs and prosperity as the centrepiece of his strategy to extricate himself from minority government and win the next election.

The aim is to contrast his record – both as a successful businessman and creator of a defence and technology-based state economy – with opponent Peter Malinauskas’s exper­ience as a union boss.

A Liberal strategist said the Premier would seize on wage and job figures showing South Australia’s employment ahead of pre-pandemic levels, and others showing a reversal of the so-called brain drain of young people interstate.

Mr Marshall believes this is favourable ground to fight on and he will be desperately trying to avoid being tarnished by three former Liberal MPs facing criminal charges and other scandals.

Mr Malinauskas has already declared Labor will fight the March 19, 2022, election on a vision of job creation, particularly for young people. So, job creation will be pushed by both major parties as the central theme of their pitch to voters.

According to the Liberal strategist, Mr Marshall will echo former Liberal prime minister John Howard – the Premier’s mentor – to pose the question he hopes will define his campaign: “Who do you trust to create jobs in South Australia? A businessman with a history of creating local jobs or a union boss who’s never created a single job in his life?”.

The Premier is borrowing from Mr Howard, who famously unleashed an almost identical tactic to crush Labor’s Mark Latham at the 2004 federal election.

Back then, Mr Latham argued Prime Minister Howard could not be trusted because he had been exposed as a liar over asylum-seekers throwing children from boats, and his credibility had been called into question by eminent Australians.

Mr Howard focused on his strengths and he made Mr Latham’s fitness for office the campaign’s central issue.

Mr Howard’s opening speech that August defined the campaign.

Then opposition leader Steven Marshall with former Liberal prime minister John Howard ahead of the 2018 state election. Picture: Mike Burton

“This election, ladies and gentlemen, will be about trust. Who do you trust to keep the economy strong and protect family living standards? Who do you trust to keep the budget strong so that we can afford to spend more on health and education?’’ he asked.

Labor has seized on Narungga MP Fraser Ellis becoming the third state MP to leave the Liberal Party after being charged with allegedly rorting a parliamentary expenses allowance.

The ALP SA Twitter account this morning published an image of a glum Mr Marshall alongside seven headlines about Liberal ministers resigning, the parliamentary expenses scandal and former Liberal Sam Duluk’s assault charge.

Mr Malinauskas is aiming to portray Mr Marshall as a shifty leader presiding over a scandal-racked Liberal rabble that cannot be trusted to govern the state.

He also aims to erode Mr Marshall’s advantage of incumbency during the pandemic, by repeatedly highlighting the fact that the COVID-19 response has been effectively spearheaded by Police Commissioner Grant Stevens, as state co-ordinator, and chief public health officer Nicola Spurrier.

The Labor leader correctly points out that he has given bipartisan support to Mr Marshall’s strategy for tackling COVID-19 and he, too, if elected, would follow expert advice.

And this is just the past year.

Imagine four more years. pic.twitter.com/1bKIriWfUw

— SA Labor (@alpsa) February 19, 2021

But on job creation, economic management, education and other policy areas, Mr Malinauskas argues, there will be election-defining points of difference. He will argue – as he did in response to Thursday’s unemployment figures showing more than 12,000 jobs had been lost in a month – that the Liberals have bungled the economic response to the pandemic.

“These aren’t numbers, these are people – thousands of South Australians who have been let down by the Marshall Liberal Government’s failed economic response to the recession,” he said.

The Opposition Leader is acutely aware that, to borrow a phrase from Bill Clinton’s 1992 US presidential campaign, “It’s the economy, stupid”.

Some senior Liberals are wary of a direct contrast between Mr Marshall and his Labor opponent, whom they correctly argue is no Mark Latham.

Instead, they say Mr Marshall should focus on a strong economic case, including SA topping the nation for jobs growth since the height of the pandemic, and growth in space, tech and defence jobs.

Mr Marshall appeared to follow this advice yesterday when asked if the public would be concerned about former Liberals on the crossbench.

“The people of SA just want to keep our state safe and our economy strong,” he emphasised.

His remaining MPs will be hoping he’s right.