Paul Starick: Labor on cusp of routing Liberals from metro Adelaide | Analysis

Both the SA Liberal Party and the federal Coalition face the challenge of reinventing themselves in the face of two electoral disasters in the space of weeks, writes Paul Starick.

The Liberals are at risk of being without a federal seat in metropolitan Adelaide because of swings to Labor in battleground seats that helped push Anthony Albanese to the nation’s top job.

The state’s most marginal seat, Boothby, last night was poised to fall to Labor’s Louise Miller-Frost and the Liberal James Stevens was being pushed hard in the eastern Adelaide seat of Sturt.

If both were snared by Labor, the Liberals would be left with just two seats in regional SA – Barker and Grey.

By 9pm, Labor was on the cusp of forming government in its own right, despite low primary vote and disparate results across the country.

So-called teal independents had routed the Liberals in Sydney and Melbourne, imperilling Treasurer Josh Frydenberg in the blue-ribbon seat of Kooyong and ousting Trent Zimmerman and Dave Sharma in their Sydney seats.

The revolt against the major parties extended to Boothby and Sturt, where Labor and Liberal candidates had swings against them on primary vote.

But the Greens had garnered more than 16 per cent of the primary vote in Boothby, a swing of 3.88 per cent, and more than 18 per cent in Sturt, a swing of 6.11 per cent.

Federal Labor leader Anthony Albanese holds his Labor party function at Canterbury Hurlstone Park RSL. Picture: Sam Ruttyn

A Liberal rout in metropolitan Adelaide would leave the party at a historic low ebb, following a disastrous landslide loss in the March 19 state election that condemned Steven Marshall to being a one-term premier.

Large swings at the state election within Sturt’s eastern Adelaide boundaries indicated Mr Stevens would face the fight of his life to secure a second term in office, after replacing former defence Minister Christopher Pyne at the 2019 election.

Mr Marshall was pushed to the brink in his Dunstan electorate, which includes Norwood and Kensington – in the heart of Sturt.

Former deputy premier Vickie Chapman created another headache for Mr Stevens in Sturt’s southeastern corner by declaring she would quit parliament and send voters to the polls three times within months.

Both major parties plumbed extraordinary lows in first-preference votes with swings to the Greens, independents, One Nation and a host of minor parties.

The historic disruption to the two-party system was not as significant in SA but the expected surge to Labor, fuelled by the state election landslide win, did not occur on primary votes.

With almost 30 per cent of the primary vote counted in SA, the Liberals had secured 33.34 per cent and Labor 34.35 per cent, with both experiencing swings against them.

Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison and Jenny Morrison hug their children after voting at Lilli Pilli Public school in the seat of Cook. Picture: Asanka Ratnayake/Getty Images

Instead, there were swings to the Greens of 3.84 per cent and One Nation of 4.3 per cent.

The net result, though, was Labor heading for government, either with the backing of independents or in its own right.

This represents a repudiation of Prime Minister Scott Morrison, whose personal character was targeted by Labor and the teal independents.

But it is not a strong endorsement of Mr Albanese, who is poised to move into The Lodge with extraordinarily low support from the Australian people.

It is a sea-change in Australian politics, with Liberals hit hard in blue-ribbon seats that were once strongholds for prime ministers but with the vote against the government spilling chaotically in several directions.

Mr Albanese will face a massive challenge to unite a fractured nation and harness the disparate forces that have propelled Labor into office.

The Coalition will have to reinvent itself – the same challenge facing the SA Liberals after Labor’s landslide win in March.

These challenges will be complicated by rising inflation and interest rates intensifying cost-of-living pressures and global economic headwinds.