Paul Starick analysis – SA Premier Steven Marshall’s challenge from Fraser Ellis’s Liberal resignation

Premier Steven Marshall is being challenged to secure his government's future by dealing with three former Liberals facing criminal charges, writes Paul Starick.

Premier Steven Marshall is facing his biggest political challenge yet – to save his government by retaining support from fallen Liberals during the countdown to the next election.

Little more than a year before the first-term premier faces voters, he will be forced to negotiate with three former Liberals facing criminal charges to ensure the government’s agenda is not derailed.

It is almost inconceivable that these three former Liberals would vote to bring down the government. Their seats have been conservative strongholds – voters might back independents but not Labor. Crucially, Mr Marshall says he has “written confirmation from Fraser Ellis that he will be continuing to support the government on confidence motions and in terms of supply”.

But the five crossbenchers now can produce their electorate shopping lists and have a strong chance of having their orders filled.

Already, Waite MP Sam Duluk – who will stand trial in June accused of assaulting fellow MP Connie Bonaros – is demanding to personally deal with the Premier on issues including saving the Waite Gatehouse. This is slated for destruction to make way for a wider intersection of Fullarton and Cross roads.

Minority government means issues like these – championed by the crossbenchers – must now be given more weight by Mr Marshall and his team. They extend beyond localised flashpoints into matters affecting the government’s legislative agenda.

One of the crossbenchers might even get a rush of blood, fuelled by ambition, and demand the speakership, now held by Heysen MP Josh Teague.

This is not to overstate the challenge facing Mr Marshall. In his first term from 2002, former Labor premier Mike Rann dealt with demands from the late maverick former Liberal turned Speaker Peter Lewis, which included a war on the invasive farm weed, branched broomrape. Mr Rann’s highly effective management of minority government paved the way for a landslide election win in 2006.

Former Labor prime minister Julia Gillard in 2010 was delivered power by two independents, Tony Windsor and Rob Oakeshott, yet ultimately was ousted by a resurgent Kevin Rudd.

Mr Marshall’s challenge is less complicated, because of the iron rules of arithmetic. Three former Liberals in conservative strongholds will not derail his government. But they will throw up roadblocks, as backbenchers including the man of the moment – Fraser Ellis – did in 2018, when they sided with Labor over a battle to give farmers the power to prevent mining companies using their land.

Labor will zealously court the crossbenchers and seize any opportunity to throw the government off course. Frontbencher Tom Koutsantonis was chatting with them in parliamentary question time on Thursday, obviously unaware Mr Ellis was about to join their ranks.

The timing of Mr Ellis’s announcement, in the early hours of Friday morning, again reveals a ruthless streak behind Mr Marshall’s affable and courteous demeanour.

The timing clearly would have been decided with the Premier. It came hours before the Adelaide Fringe’s opening and just three days before the first coronavirus vaccinations are deployed in SA.

Mr Marshall’s challenge is to ensure the stain of a former Liberal being charged with rorting a parliamentary allowance, coupled with those charges faced by other former party MPs, does not discolour his government. The ripples must not become a wave that swamps voters.

For now, Mr Marshall is strongly rated with mainstream South Australians for the state’s management of the pandemic and, apart from shock jobless figures on Thursday, a strong recovery from the recession.

The road ahead will be bumpy, though, as he fights to secure re-election on March 19, 2022.