Only once this season have Adelaide won on the road | Graham Cornes

Matthew Nicks’ men are most vulnerable when they start favourite. That’s not a problem this weekend, writes Graham Cornes.

The Crows play Essendon on Sunday afternoon at Marvel Stadium. It will be their most important game of the year.

We’re going to be saying that every week from now until the end of the season because finally, Crows fans are daring to think they could actually play finals football again.

Even the most optimistic Crows fan would not have predicted they would be in the top eight after 16 rounds. But there they are, in seventh position, one win away from fourth.

However, the ladder is tight.

The much-maligned Gold Coast, in 13th position, is only one win (and percentage) behind them. Every game is vital.

Essendon will be no easy opponent.

Those Essendon players will be hurting after their last-gasp loss against Port at the MCG last week.

They thought they had done enough.

They outplayed Port for much of the game, hit the front with 80 seconds left on the clock and were still in front with 18 seconds left, before the Dan Houston heroics.

Darcy Fogarty of the Crows celebrates a goal against Cartlon with Taylor Walker at the Adelaide Oval. Picture: Sarah Reed

Max Michalanney of the Crows competes for a mark against Nick Larkey of the Kangaroos at Adelaide Oval. Picture: Mark Brake

Never let it be said that seconds don’t count during a football match. So, if they have any football character at all, the Bombers will bring the ferocious intensity of redemption to the contest.

Under cover at the Docklands Stadium, protected from the bleak Melbourne weather, on a fast ground that suits their aggressive style of play, Essendon are favoured to win this match. But that’s OK.

Matthew Nicks relishes the challenge and his players respond best when they are the underdogs.

Conversely, they are most vulnerable when they start favourite. That’s not a problem today because few of the “experts” give them a chance.

However, there is one persistent dark cloud that is hovering ominously over the Crows team as they prepare for this game.

It’s their record away from Adelaide Oval.

Only once this season, have they won on the road. They scraped in by three points against Hawthorn in Launceston.

It’s hardly convincing but a win is a win. For any of today’s AFL teams, winning away from home is always a challenge, but the non-Victorian teams are at a decided disadvantage because they have to travel every second week.

For instance, it’s round 17 of the AFL season and Essendon, excluding the Gather Round clash against Melbourne at Adelaide Oval, have played outside of Melbourne only four times.

The pure statistics tell us that, for any team, it’s harder to win on the road. Occasionally, great teams defy the odds but they eventually succumb like all the rest.

It’s been harder for Adelaide in the past few years as they slowly rebuild (that word again) but the signs are positive. Plus, the Crows’ record at Marvel Stadium is relatively good. They have won 33 of the 69 matches they have played there – 47.8 per cent.

It’s Essendon’s home ground but at the start of this season, its winning percentage was only 56.3. So the numbers shouldn’t frighten the Crows. Eventually they will win again on the road.

Strangely, the Crows have a better winning percentage at the Sydney Cricket Ground than they do at Adelaide Oval. So they can win away.

There’s lots of factors that will impact on a team’s performances when they play away from home. Most important is the familiarity of procedure and environment. Every athlete has a routine that they adopt before the contest and that routine is disrupted the minute they step on a plane.

In the early days of the Crows (and it would have been the same at Port), when travelling to play interstate was such a novelty and performances were inconsistent, we identified 14 or 15 different factors that could have negatively affected performance.

Air travel was one, given the lethargy that often accompanies it, be that the rarefied, dehydrating atmosphere or trying to fit footballer-sized frames into economy seats.

Different food, different bed, different matchday timings impacted. Travel to the ground was different. The facilities at the grounds were inferior to yours at home. The surface of the ground was foreign and of course the crowd was hostile.

There were other negative factors and the more you analysed it, the more you found. You can compensate for some of those factors but in the end the coaches, the players and the clubs realised that it was more a matter of mental resolve.

Josh Rachele of the Crows marks the ball in front of George Wardlaw of the Kangaroos during the 2023 AFL Round 16 match at Adelaide Oval. Picture: Sarah Reed

Don’t focus on those negative factors that you can’t control, but fix the ones you can. It’s just another game. Deal with it.

What is interesting about today’s clash is the comparison between the Crows and two other non-Victorian power teams of the 21st century. Since 2000 both the West Coast Eagles and the Brisbane Lions have been dominant, multiple premiership-winning teams.

It will surprise many to know that Adelaide’s win-loss record at Marvel Stadium is superior to both of those teams. But it’s been over two years since they won there. They are due.

Essendon may be favoured to win today but the Crows do have a few things in their favour.

The forward line, led by Taylor Walker is one of the most potent in the competition. The combination of Walker, Fogarty and the dynamic smaller players, Rachelle, Rankine, Pedlar, Murphy and the hyperactive Ned McHenry has combined to lead the league in points for.

Give them enough of the ball and they will kick a winning score. Additionally, Adelaide’s defence which has been its most vulnerable division, has lifted in recent weeks and is one now one of the best at restricting the opposition’s inside 50 marks. Two young guns in Max Michalanney and Mitch Hinge are performing like veterans.

And on that subject, why is Michalanney not being considered in the serious discussions by the mainly Melbourne-based media’s predictions for the Rising Star Award? Have they not seen him in action against some of the competition’s best forwards?

If Essendon is to have an advantage today, it will be in its mid-field. Adelaide has Jordan Dawson who has stimulated the Crows mid-field but Essendon has Zach Merrett and Darcy Parish.

Additionally, there are a couple of emerging young Bombers stars in Jye Caldwell and Ben Hobbs who could get under Adelaide’s guard. One of Adelaide’s persistent weaknesses has been its centre clearance work. They must be better at that today.

The Crows went searching for inspiration this week, inviting South Australia’s own intrepid adventurer, Tim Jarvis, to share his experiences of re-tracing the remarkable Antarctic journey of famed, but ultimately tragic polar explorer, Sir Ernest Shackleton.

Folklore has it as “the greatest survival story of the Antarctic” but I wonder if today’s footballers could actually appreciate it. Did they feel the despair of impending tragedy. Could they understand the gigantic task of crossing Antarctic mountains and sailing wild seas in nothing but a whaling boat?

Did they realise that Tim Jarvis did everything Shackleton did using only authentic clothing, material and equipment? I hope they know that Jarvis, given his environmental work and history of expeditionary achievements, is a true South Australian hero.

He’s 57 now and I doubt he’s played any football but if he effectively conveyed those qualities of courage, the ability to overcome the odds, to survive when disaster looms and all seems lost, plus the importance of teamwork, overcoming Essendon at Marvel shouldn’t present too much of a problem.