Matthew Abraham: The next SA Liberal premier likely hasn’t been elected yet

Nothing against David Speirs, the new Liberal leader, but he very likely won’t be his party’s next premier, writes Matthew Abraham. That’s not how the Libs roll.

If all goes to the threadbare script, the next Liberal Premier of South Australia has not yet been elected to parliament.

She, he or they are probably right now sowing faba beans on Yorke Peninsula or selling cheese from the dairy door in Yankalilla. Maybe they’re even making a go of a blockchain, cryptocurrency start-up in Lot Fourteen.

Whoever and wherever they are, greatness is yet to tap them on the shoulder.

This is not an attempt to tip a bucket of cold water over brand-new Liberal leader, the Scottish-born, southern suburban MP with subtitles, David Speirs.

As the events of this week have shown, he needs all the help and encouragement he can get.

Even new Premier Peter Malinauskas wished him the very best, declaring generously: “I certainly welcome the decision of the Liberal Party and congratulate them, and him, on this significant achievement.”

It’s hard to work out what he meant by the words “significant achievement”.

Perhaps he was referring to Mr Speirs winning with 18 votes. His closest rival, Adelaide Hills MP Josh Teague, scored five, while South East MP Nick McBride got just one. Keep an eye on Nick, he’s a man of constant surprises.

Within hours of his win, the new leader posted a slick video on social media promising to take the Liberals “back to the suburbs and the towns and the regional communities that make this state great”. It does beg the question: where’s the party been for the past four years? On the moon?

New SA Liberal leader David Speirs speaks to the media after leadership ballot. Picture: POOL via NCA NewsWire / David Mariuz

“I am the son of a retired chippie and a current NDIS support worker,” he says. “My family had humble beginnings but we arrived here in Australia and set out to make the most of life.”

It’s not quite in the same league as the Malinauskas branding of “I’m a husband, a father of three, a weekend gardener, a pretty average footy player”. We know very little about the private life of David James Speirs. But it’s not a bad start.

He’s smart, has energy, enthusiasm and youth on his side – at 37 he’s the party’s youngest leader – and a rare, solid endorsement from his party room. He genuinely reckons he can lead what’s left of his party to victory in 2026.

So why shouldn’t he be the next Liberal Premier?

Because he’s just been elected leader of the nation’s most hopeless political party, that’s why.

Over the decades, I’ve had a front-row seat observing the endless acts of utter mindless bastardry that have kept the Liberals in opposition for most of that time.

Premier Vickie Chapman chose Tuesday to announce she was quitting politics, creating what will be a hugely unpopular by-election in her once-safe seat of Bragg. It is entirely possible Labor will win it.

By-elections, at any time, are high risk. The Bragg by-election, held hot on the heels of both the state and federal elections, will be seen as a frolic and a snub to voters. I’m not describing this as an act of utter mindless bastardry by Ms Chapman. When she walks is her business. But the timing, on the same day her party elected its new leader, in her absence, can’t have been coincidental. Voters can fairly see it as a selfish and unnecessary act.

To expect a leader of this party to somehow cobble together an election victory in four years’ time is ridiculous. Before standing, Mr Speirs should have secured a signed guarantee from his party room to support him as leader for at least two elections. Without it, there’s every chance he’ll be rolled, sooner or later.

On the back of Labor’s State Bank election drubbing, new leader Mike Rann secured such a rolled-gold promise from then Shoppies Union chief, now Senator, Don Farrell. Senator Farrell stood by his word. This was critical to Labor’s miraculous 2002 victory after two terms in Opposition. For Labor, it proved a case of “is Don, is good”.

The next Liberal Premier should enter parliament at the 2026 election, or at worst the 2030 poll. The caveat is if the new Liberal MP for Schubert, Ashton Hurn, gives voters the chance to make her SA’s first female premier. It’s hard to see anyone else in the current crop coming close.

One of my first political stories, as a young journalist at The Advertiser, was the burial of the great Liberal Premier, Sir Thomas Playford, in Norton Summit, not far from his beloved cherry orchards, in June 1981. Playford’s Liberals have been trying to bury themselves ever since.