Mark Kenny: Scott Morrison thinks he can win a ‘Tampa’ election. He might be right

Humiliation in parliament soon began to look like a hidden blessing for Scott Morrison. But the PM might already have missed his chance, writes Mark Kenny. Is an asylum seeker campaign a game changer? TAKE THE POLL

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You might have written off that low-frequency rumble last week as a demolition nearby but could it have been a tremor, a tectonic realignment in which the earth itself was shifting?

This is the big unknown in Canberra right now after a historic parliamentary boilover on asylum-seeker policy resulted in two apparently incompatible things coalescing.

First, the government was rolled in the only House that matters meaning that within parliament at least, it is now in full retreat, running scared from further legislative ambushes.

Second, that legitimacy-sapping defeat was interpreted somewhat contrarily outside the capital, as a directionless government standing strong, suddenly finding a reason to exist.

Perverse, yes. Unprecedented? Not quite.

Border anxiety transformed the 2001 “Tampa” election in the Coalition’s favour, and Liberals hope it has already begun reshaping the 2019 race.

They are not entirely without evidence even if it remains thin. This week’s Nine-Ipsos poll, which catapulted the beleaguered Morrison operation to within a whisker of 50-50, may be just one poll but it presaged an earthquake.

Nine’s previous survey last December had merely confirmed that Labor was cruising to victory at 54-46. In other words, landslide territory.

This lead had held over summer. Even one week ago, Newspoll’s fortnightly survey gave Bill Shorten’s Labor a healthy 53-47 lead constructed on a solid primary vote foundation of 39 per cent.

Now though, according to Nine’s newest poll, Labor’s first preference vote has tanked — a 6 percentage point fall in seven days — down to just 33.

Home Affairs Minister Peter Dutton with the Prime Minister Scott Morrison during Question Time in the House of Representatives. Picture: Gary Ramage

Of course, surveys are extrapolations so Nine’s 33 per cent nationwide could well be closer to 36 (its stated margin of error is 2.9 per cent) and Newspoll’s 2.5 per cent “maximum sampling error” could mean the real Labor primary lies closer to 37 than 39.

But these are big “ifs” and frankly, nobody in Canberra thinks the return of boats to centrestage, has had no effect on the electoral dynamic.

Say what you like about scare campaigns but the Prime Minister’s ‘all-guns-blazing’ attack on Labor’s “weakened” border laws, has been quickly vindicated.

Ditto Liberals will now argue, for the switch from Malcolm Turnbull who was quintessentially too reasoned to run the falsehoods and exaggerations being bellowed by Morrison and Home Affairs Minister, Peter Dutton.

Two questions to ponder however: For how long can the frighteners about boats continue to bite assuming the three-month election timetable (say May 18) and assuming there are no new arrivals during that time?

And, given the claimed “threat” to border security, and the sudden shift in sentiment attributed to this strident contention, did Morrison just pass up his best chance of winning by not calling an election last week?

Remember, Labor ditched the expenditure element of its “medevac” change when advised that it made the vote tantamount to a matter of confidence in the government.

Despite being streets ahead, Labor wanted to avoid an early election dominated by border security that would immediately flow.

What part of that reluctance did the PM not get?