Losing $45bn frigate program would be catastrophic for nuclear subs in SA | Paul Starick

The loss of a $45 billion project to Scotland would likely spark a catastrophic chain of events for SA – and the nation, writes Paul Starick.

• Troubled $45bn frigates may be sunk

Drums are beating loudly, yet again, about the future of a major naval shipbuilding project in Adelaide worth tens of billions of dollars.

This time, conjecture centres yet again on the $45bn Hunter-class frigate project. According to high-level speculation the program, to build nine frigates in Adelaide, may move overseas to a Scottish shipyard.

Under the scenario put to The Advertiser, BAE Systems would build four ships in Glasgow rather than nine in Adelaide.

This has not been directly ruled out by either Defence Minister Richard Marles’s office, or BAE Systems Australia.

Both have, though, emphasised the importance of continuous naval shipbuilding in Adelaide, to which the federal government is already committed.

A visualisation of the proposed Hunter Class BAE Systems frigate.

Premier Peter Malinauskas has repeatedly urged the release of a naval surface fleet review to quell speculation over the future of the frigate program, in particular.

Mr Malinauskas on October 19 demanded the federal government “get cracking on announcing the outcome” of the review.

“We do think that the Hunter Class program needs the public assurance that the surface ship review hopefully provides and that it says this program is being continued with and should be built at pace.

“We have made our position clear on this. We are steadfast about it.

“I look forward to its public release,” he told parliament, responding to a question from Opposition Leader David Speirs.

On Thursday, Mr Malinauskas said he did not believe speculation about a Scottish build was being pushed on the basis of fact but argued the federal government would breach its promise of continuous naval shipbuilding if the frigate program moved there.

“I don’t think there is any way that the Commonwealth can honour its commitment to continuous naval shipbuilding effort here in South Australia as a whole program, and moves over and starts delivering in Scotland, which is why I just can’t believe that whoever is pushing this speculation is doing it on the basis of fact,” he told ABC Radio Adelaide.

“And it would be very disappointing indeed, and I would seek to hold the Commonwealth government to account on this, if they do not honour their commitment to a continuous naval shipbuilding effort down at Osborne.

Unfortunately, speculation about Adelaide naval shipbuilding programs being axed or downgraded has too often had foundation.

This is a movie we have seen before and a sequel would be extremely poorly received.

Mr Malinauskas told state parliament, also on October 19, that “if the government were to abandon Hunter … then the problem with that would be straight back to the drawing board and we go immediately back into a valley of death. That is unacceptable from the state government’s perspective.”

Asked by Mr Speirs on Tuesday if he stood by those comments, Mr Malinauskas said: “Absolutely”.

Ultimately, though, the frigates’ fate depends on Minister Marles and his response to a surface fleet review he has promised to release early next year.

There is growing uncertainty about the fate of the $368bn nuclear-powered submarine program, centred on Adelaide.

Australia’s longest-serving foreign affairs minister Alexander Downer caused a furore by declaring the submarines would never be built in Adelaide because of prohibitive cost and technological challenges.

Despite strong bipartisan public support for that program, there is some private support for Mr Downer’s view.

Scuttling the frigate program without continuous Adelaide naval shipbuilding would be catastrophic for the nation’s manufacturing capability and national security. It simply must not happen.