Huge shift in thinking SA has to overcome | Kathryn Bermingham

For SA to grow, for more jobs for our kids and a better lifestyle, there’s a major mindset change we have to make, writes Kathryn Bermingham.

Nick Reade’s call for a population target for South Australia of two million by 2032 is the kind of ambition that will drive the state forward.

The chief of the RAA has urged sustainable growth from 1.8 million, which he said must be underpinned by more roads, schools and other infrastructure.

It is the kind of thinking we need more of, but you can bet the idea will be met with fierce opposition from some parts.

When former Committee for Adelaide chief Bruce Djite proposed a similar target last year, the backlash was widespread.

The same predictable lines about traffic, house prices and the rate of development were rolled out, and critics were quick to point out the downsides of booms in Melbourne and Sydney.

We need to shift the way we think about population growth, and overcome our apprehensions about targets.

The issue should be viewed from a broader, longer-term perspective.

What kind of place do we want Adelaide to be in 10 years’ time, and how can growing our population help us get there? As Mr Djite put it: “Population growth is a vital part of any solution if we are to give not only ourselves, but our children, the best chance to fulfil their potential here.”

Aerial view of the sprawling eastern suburbs of Adelaide with the Mt Lofty Ranges in the background

The concept of targets has been met with mixed response from our state’s leaders.

Premier Peter Malinauskas has backed calls for population growth and rightly warned younger families will pay the price of providing services unless the economy expands.

But, asked in a recent Sunday Mail interview whether he backed a population target, he declined to set a figure.

“I’m less interested in arbitrary numbers than the policy that will actually underpin the growth in a way that is supported by South Australians,” he said.

Fair enough. Successful, sustainable growth must be backed up by solid policy.

But a target also makes sense and, properly formulated, would be far more than a meaningless figure.

As Mr Reade points out, setting a population goal is important because it provides a focus on necessary steps to achievement.

“We want to see the infrastructure in place and what I’d be advocating for is a measured growth in population.

“For me, it’d be two million by 2032,” Mr Reade said.

“In 10 years’ time, at around two million, that’d be growing about 1.6 per cent, on average, for the next 10 years.

“That’ll get us to two million, and I think that’s a good aspirational number,” he said. Explaining how he reached the figure, Mr Reade said two million would not stretch the state in ways it could not deliver on, but also met community expectations and provided a reasonable period of time to achieve the target.

Population plays a role in so many of the decisions made by government, particularly those that set us up for the future.

The Torrens to Darlington Project will alleviate pressure on our road network, which is forecast to worsen as more cars hit the roads.

Artist impression of the River Torrens to Darlington Project.

The expansion of the state’s naval shipbuilding program is expected to see up to 5000 South Australians employed in the industry by 2030.

We want more people to move here, and South Australians to stay.

We’re constantly talking about how we can stop young people and workers in industries like healthcare from heading interstate.

So why not put a number on it?

If, we’re spending billions driving and preparing for population growth, we should have goals.

And if not now, then when? The latest data indicates SA is once again set to head backwards in the population stakes.

The state experienced positive net interstate migration in 2020-21 for the first time since 1990-91, the trend continued in 2021-22 and is projected for this financial year.

However, the federal Centre for Population says “pre-pandemic trends are then expected to return”, with net interstate migration of -3500 forecast in 2023-24, reaching -2800 in 2032-33.

Those figures should concern us all. It is time to reverse the trend, and time to embrace population targets.