Former defence minister Christopher Pyne says we must be alert, not alarmed, over China

Former defence minister Christopher Pyne says we need to be very alert to rising tensions in the Indo Pacific. To be anything less would be bonkers.

The only thing that surprises me about the current outpouring of commentary about China and its role in the Indo Pacific is that it has taken this long for people to notice.

Any half intelligent person in the defence and foreign affairs policy space who has been following the course of events for the last decade could tell you that China’s ambitions to be the other super power in the world were more than mere rhetoric.

I wrote about the subject of a real war in the Indo Pacific over Taiwan on these pages on April 12.

A month ago, I gave a speech on the same subject to the graduating ceremony for the School of the Professions at Adelaide University the same day.

I was somewhat taken aback by the response. In the speech and column I said that the chances of a kinetic war over Taiwan were more likely today than then were in 2016, when I became Defence Industry Minister. It is a simple statement of fact.

Apart from the over-hyped media outlets, who reported instead, that I had said there was a likelihood of a war in the next five years in the Indo Pacific over Taiwan, reporting of the speech swung across varying degrees of, “so what, we’ve been saying that for ages” to “why would he actually want to SAY such a thing, despite the fact we all know its true”.

China is flexing its military muscle, over Taiwan in particular. Picture: STR/AFP

I can understand the first reaction because I regarded the statement as unexceptional, the latter sentiment would be like John F Kennedy saying in 1960, “perhaps if we don’t draw attention to my Catholicism, no one will notice”.

It is critical for the Australian people to know about the world and the region in which they live. Any other view is frankly, bonkers.

If, God forbid, there is a war in the Indo Pacific in which Australia is a participant, imagine if this came as a complete surprise to the population?

In a democracy, it’s the government’s job to keep the people informed of matters that may affect them. Nothing affects them more than the nation’s security. It is the compact that exists between the elector and their representative.

I am not suggesting for a moment that the government has sought to cover up any aspect of the national security debate.

I am more saying how surprised I was that the media and elements of the commentariat were blissfully unaware of the importance of this issue and that at least one wrote that I should have kept these views to myself!

Fortunately, our policy and decision makers in Canberra are will attuned to the dynamics of the competition between the US and China in the Indo Pacific.

In the month since my speech and column, Defence Minister Peter Dutton was asked about the possibility of a military conflict in the Indo Pacific because China attempted to reunite the island of Taiwan with mainland China and stated honestly that it “cannot be ruled out”.

Shortly thereafter, the secretary of the Department of Home Affairs, Mike Pezzullo, in his Anzac Day message to the public servants who make up the department suggested that “the drums of war” were beating in our region.

Both the Minister and secretary are quite rightly speaking in measured tones, but make no mistake, they are doing so because they mean it.

We all need to be shaken out of a mistaken sense of complacency.

Recently, I was briefing a group of investment bankers in Sydney about the geopolitical shifts in our region and the world that affect economic and national security.

During my remarks I had made mention of the strategic value from a military point of view of the Coral Sea.

The first question to me from my audience was “why do we care who controls the Coral Sea?”.

After I had picked my jaw up from the rather lovely board room table, I explained that it happens to be Australia’s critical supply link between ourselves and our only ally capable of defending Australia – the US.

On reflection, it brought home to me the extraordinary lack of interest in national security among the very people whose lives and livelihoods depend precisely on just that.

Since World War II we have been blessed in Australia with relative peace and so have most of the world.

We have prospered and our quality of life and standard of living reflect that prosperity.

But that blessed position has also created a mindset that “someone else” is taking care of matters as important as the foreign and defence policies that affect us all.

As a nation, we have been world beaters at pulling together to reform our economy.

Every Australian has an interest and an opinion about tax, how our governments should prioritise the spending of their revenue and the economic health of the nation.

We have shown in the last 15 months how well we can pull together to meet and beat a global pandemic.

While no one should be alarmed, everyone needs to take an interest in what is happening in the Indo Pacific and what it means for us.

Because, while people might not want to face it, if the security situation in our region deteriorates, there will be nowhere for us to hide.