Donald Trump-fuelled Canadian conservative collapse echoes in Australia’s federal election | Samantha Maiden
There’s one man you can expect to cop the blame from Dutton’s inner circle if he loses on Saturday, writes Samantha Maiden.
Opinion
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If Peter Dutton loses the election on Saturday night, his inner circle will blame one man: US President Donald Trump.
The Prime Minister waving around a Medicare card hasn’t helped. But it’s not even the biggest factor, according to Liberal Party insiders.
“Honestly, easily, the single biggest factor is Trump,’’ a senior Liberal MP said this week.
“He has just smashed us, right?.”
Bigger than the impact of Labor’s $8 billion dollar spend on Medicare? Surely not?
“Much bigger,’’ he said.
“It’s a less dramatic version of what’s happened in Canada. The Canadian conservatives have lost 20 points in the polls over this.
“It’s the same phenomenon.
“And if you track the timing, the polling starts to turn south for us after an inauguration day, accelerates a bit, after the Zelensky meeting and after the tariffs, it just drops to the floor.”
Even in focus groups, voters are bringing up international affairs. According to Labor strategists, that never happens.
At the beginning of the campaign, the Labor Party was coy about suggesting Peter Dutton was Trump-lite, a Temu Trump using a hint, hint, nudge nudge approach.
This week, the Prime Minister is done with pretending.
“I think Australians look at the United States, and they see a society that is really conflicted, is really polarised, that’s not healthy,’’ Mr Albanese said.
“They don’t want that here.”
The Prime Minister added that President Trump’s equivocation of tariffs, which he described as having “walked them back and then walked them forward”, was reflected in Mr Dutton’s own backflips on work from home policies.
“We have a different culture here, and they don’t want to see a user pay system for health,’’ he said.
“They want to see us go the Australian way to deal with Australian issues.
“I think (voters) are worried about some of the policies that Peter Dutton has put forward.
“Sacking public servants. The working from home policy. The rhetoric about inclusion and people being employed on the basis of gender. The attempt to look at culture wars.”
Asked if he would have President Trump to thank for a second term the Prime Minister deflected.
However, he later raised the example of Canada, where the governing Liberal Party won the nation’s election, despite trailing in the polls three months ago when Justin Trudeau resigned.
That political turnaround is being blamed on Donald Trump’s tariffs that have turned the tide in favour of the current government, led by Prime Minister Mark Carney.
“No, look, I think what Australians have also seen is that President Trump has changed positions on tariffs for example pretty regularly,’’ Mr Albanese said.
“He made a range of announcements and then has walked them back and then walked them forward, and then walked them back again.
“I think they see a parallel with Mr Dutton … Working from home policies, EV (electric vehicle) policies, road user charges.
“I think people have a look at uncertainty and they know also that in uncertain times what they’re looking for is not volatility.
“What they’re looking for is stability and certainty, and that’s what my government is – the most stable.
“There have been turbulent times, the biggest inflation crisis since the 1980s, the biggest energy crisis since the 1970s.
“And part of my pitch is that we’ve changed Prime Ministers at every election since 2004, when John Howard was re-elected.”
The Liberals last polled the SA seat of Boothby in February. It showed that the former member Nicolle Flint had good name recognition but is likely to fall short of reclaiming the seat from Labor.
It took the ALP 15 years of running in the seat to peel it back from the Liberals. They are confident they can hang on.
In the seat of Sturt, it’s line ball according to the ALP, a seat they shouldn’t win from the Liberals on demographics.
This is the land of Burnside Village, Christopher Pyne and Myrtle Bank, where some voters were surprised to see Jacinta Nampijinpa “Make Australia Great Again” Price rock up to a pre poll.
If the Labor Party can pick up Sturt, they have a real chance of securing a majority - some ALP strategists reckon they are now a one in three chance of that on election night.
However, a late surge of votes to Pauline Hanson’s One Nation could help the Liberals by shovelling preferences their way.
Speaking on the 7:30 report on Monday night, host Sarah Ferguson asked the Prime Minister if the US President was his lucky charm.
“So my question is - has Donald Trump come to your aid during this campaign, darkening the brand of hard men leaders?,’’ she said.
“I think Peter Dutton has darkened his own brand,’’ Mr Albanese replied.
“He has made a career out of promoting division. About punching down on vulnerable people,’’ he said.
“About seeking to divide the community, engaging in culture wars. What I’ve done is to try to bring people together. That’s a part of who I am.”
Only a few more days to go now, before the Australian verdict on that pitch will be clear.
Starick: How it happened: Libs’ Adelaide has come true
Boothby is solidly in Labor hands. Sturt is gone. The Liberals worst case scenario in South Australia is now a reality, writes Paul Starick.
Bolt: Gutless and incoherent Coalition should be ashamed
The Coalition fought to a shock lead in the polls, and then … stopped. So here we are, back with a Labor government that’s left Australia poorer, weaker, more divided and deeper in debt.